Ethiopia: Protests in response to ongoing religious tensions likely to continue nationwide through at least late February

Event

Further anti-government protests and related violence are likely in cities nationwide through at least late February due to tensions over a split in the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewhado Church (EOTC). Related violence and disturbances were reported in several locations, including in Weliso town, Oromia Region, Feb. 9. The EOTC called for nationwide protests Feb. 12 in response to alleged government interference in church affairs; officials have banned the demonstrations.

Demonstrations will likely occur near religious sites, city centers, or public squares. Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in urban centers across Ethiopia in the coming weeks and deploy to the site of any unrest. Security personnel could use force, including teargas and live ammunition, to disperse crowds; localized curfews are possible. Protesters may throw stones at police and indiscriminately attack vehicles passing near rallies. Transport disruptions are possible, as security forces may close roads leading into and out of towns where protests occur. Commercial disruptions are likely near any protest activity or ethnic violence. Authorities may limit or block access to mobile and internet communications during periods of severe unrest. Clashes between members of the breakaway EOTC faction and mainstream EOTC could occur.

Context

Since late January, tensions between the EOTC and the government have remained high following disagreements over the breakaway of three archbishops and 25 episcopal appointees in the Oromia Region, whom the EOTC accused of being involved in "illegal anointing." The EOTC also accused the government of direct involvement in the crisis. The EOTC has filed a lawsuit against the government and the breakaway faction at the Ethiopian Supreme Court. The new Holy Synod decided to break away from the EOTC due to its perceived failure to serve followers in their native languages, resulting in the loss of millions of believers over the past years, especially in the Oromia and SNNP regions. Tensions recently came to a head on Feb. 4 when clashes between followers of EOTC and security forces near Shashamene's St. Michael Church left at least three people dead and several others injured.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Exercise caution in recent unrest-affected locations and near religious sites. Reconfirm the status of road routes before departure. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of violence. If violence occurs, seek shelter in a safe nongovernmental building. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.