Europe: Conflict-related sanctions and restrictions continue to cause disruptions throughout the region through February /update 106

Event

Sanctions and restrictions imposed by various governments in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine continue to cause disruptions across Europe through February.

Travel Restrictions
Authorities in Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Finland, and the Czech Republic have imposed restrictions on Russian citizens who hold Schengen tourist and work visas from entering their countries. Exceptions apply in different countries, including for humanitarian reasons, dissidents, family members of EU citizens, residence permit holders, the movement of goods, diplomatic missions, and transit to and from the Kaliningrad exclave. Additionally, the EU has suspended the EU-Russia visa facilitation agreement.

Moscow has banned certain categories of EU officials from entering Russia in response to EU sanctions and continued weapons shipments to Ukraine; the ban was further widened to additional categories on Jan. 17. The ban includes unspecified senior EU military officials, law-enforcement officials, citizens engaged in promoting anti-Russian sentiment, and representatives of European defense companies involved in delivering military equipment to Ukraine.

Several governments, including those of the US, France, the UK, Australia, Bulgaria, Canada, and Poland, have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those currently in that country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do so.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Russian authorities have declared martial law in occupied areas of the four Ukrainian regions Moscow claims to have annexed, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, and raised alert levels nationwide. A "medium response regime" has been declared in all regions bordering Ukraine while a "high readiness level" has been implemented in all remaining regions in the Southern and Central federal districts, which includes Moscow. A "basic readiness level" is in effect in all other regions of Russia.

Regional authorities in Russia have implemented a "high" (yellow) terror threat level in regions bordering Ukraine, including Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, as well as in the Russian-annexed city of Sevastopol. This is the middle level on a three-tier scale where "increased" (blue) is the lowest level and "critical" (red) is the highest. Cross-border artillery shelling occasionally strikes border villages in Kursk, Belgorod, and Bryansk oblasts, often in response to artillery fire from Russia, and there are reports of covert Ukrainian activity in Russian territory.

Russia has also increased the terrorism threat level to the maximum "security level no. 3" at Sheremetyevo International Airport (SVO), Domodedovo Airport (DME), and Vnukovo International Airport (VKO) in Moscow in addition to Pulkovo Airport (LED) in Saint Petersburg. Enhanced security measures, including additional patrols and checkpoints, and intensive baggage, vehicle, and passenger checks are likely while security level no. 3 is in force, prompting possible passenger processing delays.

Belarus has implemented enhanced security measures on its border with Ukraine. Additional special units, as well as special-purpose police units, have been introduced in the Brest and Gomel regions. As of Dec. 21, the Minsk government increased border region security restrictions, including temporary entry, stay, and movement restrictions in Loevsky, Braginsky, and Khoiniki districts of Gomel Region, which adjoins Ukraine.

Several countries bordering Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, Latvia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. As of Feb. 2, Moldova extended its state of emergency for a further 60 days, and Latvia extended its state of emergency on the Belarus border through May 10. Nevertheless, Moldova, Slovakia, Romania, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees. However, Latvia's Pededze border crossing point with Russia is closed.

Massed Russian airstrikes on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure increase the likelihood of collateral damage in adjacent countries. Missiles and missile debris have landed in Poland (Nov. 15), Belarus (Dec. 30), and Moldova (Jan. 14). Such incidents can be caused by malfunctions or debris following missile engagements; they are increasingly likely given the numbers of both offensive and defensive systems that are operational during massed Russian airstrikes.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the breakaway Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return. Authorities in Moldova increased security nationwide following a series of security incidents, including explosions and shootings, in the Transnistria region.

Anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. There have been no reported incidents of security threats to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus; however, low-level harassment, increased scrutiny, or coercion of foreign nationals by officials are possible. Russian activists occasionally hold low-level gatherings in Russia denouncing the conflict; Russian security services typically quickly and forcefully disperse such gatherings and regularly arrest participants.

Cyber Threats
Russian-backed hackers have maintained a constant campaign of cyber attacks against Ukrainian, NATO, EU, and other western entities, principally targeting government and defense-related organizations. Cyber security analysts have identified Russian military intelligence as becoming more aggressive and more direct in the nature of its attacks. The European Parliament website was inaccessible for several hours on Nov. 23, soon after legislators passed a resolution denouncing Russia as a "state sponsor of terrorism"; a pro-Kremlin group subsequently claimed responsibility for the cyber attack. Separately, Microsoft's Security Threat Intelligence Center has attributed cyber attacks on Ukrainian and Polish transport and security organizations to hackers backed by the GRU, Russia's military intelligence directorate.

Transport Disruptions
The airspace of numerous countries remains closed to all Russian aircraft and flights. Russia has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries, including EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan. In addition, several airlines not necessarily impacted by the national airspace closures have partially or fully suspended services using Russian airspace.

As of early February, Turkish authorities announced that they would suspend flights by Russian-operated Boeing and Airbus aircraft, due to the application of international sanctions, which will significantly reduce air travel between the two countries.

Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has suspended flight operations at 10 airports in southwestern parts of the country and at one airport in Russian-annexed Crimea indefinitely. Impacted facilities include Anapa Airport (AAQ), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Elista International Airport (ESL), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), and Voronezh International Airport (VOZ) in Russia, in addition to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Russian-annexed Crimea.

Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The EU has banned overflights of its airspace by Belarusian airlines; moreover, numerous airlines are avoiding Belarusian airspace or have suspended overflights of Belarus. Ukrainian airspace remains closed to all commercial air traffic.

Russia has extended a ban on road freight transportation for companies based in the EU, Norway, Ukraine, and the UK through June 30. This applies to road freight traveling to Russia, as well as transiting Russia toward third countries. Various goods are exempt from the ban. The Russian Ministry of Transport has declared that the delivery of goods from these countries by road will be carried out by trans-shipping the freight to domestic carriers in border areas in the Pskov, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, and Murmansk oblasts, the Republic of Karelia, and Saint Petersburg. The regulations do not apply to the Kaliningrad region.

The International Maritime Organization has issued advisories concerning the ongoing danger posed to maritime navigation by drifting sea mines, primarily in the Black Sea's Northwest, West, and Southwest sectors. Such mines have been discovered in the coastal waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. These three countries have proficient naval ordnance disposal teams that typically tow mines to low-traffic areas for safe destruction. International sanctions ban Russian vessels and Russian-operated ships from accessing EU, US, and UK ports.

Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine agreed to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative until March. The UN-backed agreement, originally brokered between the aforementioned nations on July 22, provides for the safe passage of grain and other foodstuffs from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne to an inspection point near Istanbul via a so-called "blue corridor." The Joint Coordination Center (JCC) in Turkey monitors and implements this accord, which lifted a de facto Russian naval blockade of Ukraine.

Sanctions and Diplomatic Relations
Diplomatic relations continue to deteriorate between western countries and Russia, as of early February. On Feb. 2, Austria expelled four Russian diplomats for suspected espionage activity, and in late January, Estonia and Russia expelled each other’s ambassadors. The Latvian government announced that it would also reduce its diplomatic representation in Moscow from mid-February.

The EU adopted a ninth package of sanctions against Russia on Dec. 16 and is currently considering a tenth package; several other governments are imposing similar measures. Sanctions typically target Russian financial institutions, state-owned enterprises, private businesses, and specific individuals using a wide array of measures, in addition to imposing restrictions on the import and export of goods and services with Russia. EU sanctions and other restrictions apply to 1,386 individuals and 171 private and state-owned entities. Russian authorities will likely implement countersanctions or other measures in retaliation.

The EU ban on the import or transit of Russian seaborne crude oil came into effect Dec. 5. The Russian Druzhba pipeline continues to transfer oil to Hungary and Slovakia. The Czech Republic, which is also served by the Druzhba pipeline, has refused to pay for Russian oil.

Aside from governmental sanctions, hundreds of companies have either suspended or terminated their Russian operations. Financial services, including PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Western Union, have suspended operations in the country. American Express and Western Union have also suspended all operations in Belarus.

Additionally, multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns; Estonia expelled further Russian diplomats on Jan. 11. Moscow typically retaliates in a similar fashion. Such tit-for-tat moves may reduce available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open.

Russia has stopped supplying natural gas to Denmark, the Netherlands, Finland, Poland, and Bulgaria. Russian authorities may decide to restrict further or entirely cut off natural gas deliveries to other European countries.

The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) has halted gas transit through the Sokhranivka gas metering station and the Novopskov gas compressor station, which are both located in Russian-occupied areas. The volume of Russian gas shipped to Europe via Ukraine has subsequently dropped by around one-third.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers or other officials. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa, if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.