Indian Ocean: Tropical Cyclone Freddy tracking westward in the Indian Ocean Feb. 17

Event

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking westward in the Indian Ocean Feb. 17. As of 16:00 MUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,808 km (1,123 miles) east-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius.

Forecast models indicate the system will maintain intense tropical cyclone strength as it tracks generally west-southwestward Feb. 17-19, passing well to the north of Rodrigues Island, Mauritius, late Feb. 19-early Feb. 20. Freddy is then likely to pass north of the main island of Mauritius and Reunion late Feb. 20-early Feb. 21. After passing the islands, the storm is forecast to weaken into a tropical cyclone as it continues to track west-southwestward, before making landfall over the central east coast of Madagascar late Feb. 21. The storm system is expected to weaken to a severe tropical storm as it tracks southwestward across central Madagascar Feb. 22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 17, the Mauritius Meteorological Services have issued a Class 1 cyclone warning for Freddy. The public is advised to take preliminary precautions. Outer rain bands from the storm system and winds generating rough seas are expected to begin to impact the island from late Feb. 18. Meteo France Reunion has issued a yellow pre-cyclone alert across the territory and the Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology has issued green cyclone early warning alerts across Analanjirofo, Atsimo Atsinanana, Atsinanana, Fitovinany, and Vatovavy regions. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports, such as Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam International Airport (MRU) and Sir Gaetan Duval Airport (RRG), and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Meteo France Reunion
Madagascar General Directorate of Meteorology