Madagascar: Severe Tropical Stom Freddy tracking west-southwestward across Atsimo-Andrefana Region Feb. 22 /update 8

Event

Severe Tropical Stom Freddy is tracking west-southwestward across Atsimo-Andrefana Region in southwestern Madagascar Feb. 22 and is expected to emerge into the Mozambique Channel in the coming hours. As of 15:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 350 km (217 miles) east of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks generally westward over the Mozambique Channel late Feb. 22-Feb. 23 before making landfall over the eastern coast of Mozambique in Inhambane Province early Feb. 24. After landfall, the storm is forecast to weaken as it continues to track generally westward across Inhambane and Gaza provinces Feb. 24-25 before dissipating as it crosses into Limpopo Province in northeastern South Africa late Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 22, Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has issued blue post-cyclone warnings across Amoron'i Mania, Ihorombe, Matsiatra Ambony, and Vakinankaratra regions, as well as Mahabo, Manja, and Morondava districts in Menabe Region and Ankazoabo-Atsimo, Beroroha, Morombe, Sakaraha, and Toliara I-II in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. All other cyclone warnings have been rescinded. Rainfall totals of around 6 cm (2.4 inches) are expected in some western regions; however precipitation levels are expected to continue to diminish. Rough seas are expected in coastal areas through early Feb. 24.

Authorities in Madagascar preemptively evacuated almost 7,300 people in the Vatovavy Region ahead of the approach of the storm. Officilas implemented restrictions on vehicular movement in ten affected regions Feb. 21-22, including closing sections of the RN2 and RN7 highways. Schools are closed across parts of the affected areas. As of Feb. 22, auhtorities have reported four fatalities associated with the oassing of the storm. More than 11,000 people have been displaced across Amoron'i Mania, Atsimo Atsinanana, Fitovinany, and Vatovay regions. Damage assesments are ongoing and it could take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is known.

Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a cyclone bulletin warning of daily rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) in parts of Inhambane and Sofala provinces, as well as winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) from Feb. 23. Daily rainfall totals of over 10 cm (4 inches) are possible in other parts of Ihambane and Sofala as well as parts of Manica provinces. Mozambique's Mozambican Council of Ministers has delared a red alert to allow authroities to respond to the impacts of the storm. Water discharges into the Zambezi River have been halted at the Cahora Bassa Dam due to anticapiated rise in river levels due to the heavy rainfall associated with Freddy.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)