10 Feb 2023 | 09:41 AM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least Feb. 13
Severe weather conditions forecast across much of Mexico through at least Feb. 13. Flooding and disruptions possible.
Event
Adverse weather conditions are forecast across much of Mexico through at least Feb. 13. A cold front will move over the Gulf of Mexico coast Feb. 10 and over the southeast and Yucatan Peninsula Feb. 11. The front is expected to bring heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, strong wind gusts, and possible hail to eastern and southeastern regions, including the Yucatan Peninsula. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes in parts of the affected areas. The cold air mass associated with the front will lead to a drop in temperatures across much of northern, northeastern, central, and eastern Mexico. The front will also generate a surge of cold winds known as a Norte event over eastern coastal regions, the Gulf and Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Snow or sleet is expected in mountainous parts of central and eastern Mexico. The cold front is expected to move into the Caribbean Sea Feb. 12; however, a new front is expected to move into northwestern and northern parts of the country Feb. 12-13. This front is expected to generate a winter storm over the affected regions, bringing a fresh drop in temperatures, strong winds, rainfall, snowfall and sleet in elevated areas, and dust storms in arid parts of the affected region.
The heaviest rainfall is forecast in eastern and southeastern regions Feb. 10-11. Daily rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas and Tabasco states Feb. 10-11 and totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are forecast in parts of Campeche Feb. 10-11 and Oaxaca and Veracruz Feb. 10. Strong winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are possible along the Gulf and Isthmus of Tehuantepec and parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast Feb. 10-12 and these winds will generate waves of up to 5 meters (16 feet). Winds of up to 120 kph (75 mph) are also possible in parts of Chihuahua and Durango Feb. 13 and may be accompanied by dust storms in places. Temperatures could drop to as low as -15 C (5 F) in mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Coahuila, Durango, and Sonora over the coming days. Conversely, temperatures up to 40 C (104 F) are possible in western coastal areas.
Hazardous Conditions
Heavy rainfall could trigger flash and areal flooding in some areas. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas. Power outages could occur throughout the affected areas.
Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.
Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports across affected regions. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
