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06 Feb 2023 | 09:43 AM UTC

Middle East: Adverse weather forecast across parts of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories, and Saudi Arabia through at least Feb. 9 /update 2

Severe weather forecast across parts of the Middle East through Feb. 9. Possible flooding and transport, business, and utility disruptions.

Warning

Event

Adverse weather conditions are forecast across parts of the Middle East through at least Feb. 9. A storm system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds across parts of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, and Saudi Arabia. Snowfall is also forecast over some mountainous parts of the region and strong winds will likely generate dust storms in arid parts of the region, as well as rough seas in coastal areas. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages. Hazardous travel conditions are likely due to slippery roads and reduced visibility caused by a combination of dust, snow in elevated areas, and fog.

As of Feb. 6, the Israel Meteorological Service has issued orange wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Israel and the West Bank, as well as orange reduced visibility warnings due to dust for southern desert areas and orange rough sea warnings along the Mediterranean coast. Yellow flash flood warnings have also been issued in the Judea Desert-Dead Sea area and yellow thunderstorm warnings for parts of northern Israel and the West Bank. Yellow reduced visibility warnings due to fog have been issued for northern mountainous areas. Winds gusting up to 80-100 kph (50-62 mph) are expected across the country and waves of 6-9 meters (20-30 feet) are possible off the coast. Snowfall is likely in areas over 1,000 meters (3,281 feet) in the northern and central mountains.

The Jordan Meteorological Department has warned of reduced visibility due to dust storms, especially in eastern and southern regions, as well as strong winds across much of the country. Heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in valleys and low-lying areas in central and northern Jordan and may cause slippery road conditions. The department has also warned of reduced visibility in elevated areas due to fog. Winds gusting over 90 kph (56 mph) are possible in some areas and snowfall may occur in mountainous areas over 1,100 meters (3,609 feet).

The Lebanon Meteorological Service has warned of possible flying debris, torrential downpours, and hazardous travel conditions in mountainous areas during the passing of the storm system. Heavy rainfall Feb. 6 is expected to be accompanied by thunderstorms and winds gusting up to 100 kph (62 mph), with the most severe weather expected in the north of the country. Further scattered showers and strong winds are expected Feb. 7-9. Snowfall is expected initially in areas over 1,000 meters (3,281 feet) before dropping as low as 500 meters (1,640 feet) over the coming days.

The Saudi Arabia National Center of Meteorology has issued red dust storm warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) across northern parts of the country Feb. 6, as well as orange warnings across central and eastern parts of the country. Yellow dust storm warnings have been issued for some southwestern and western parts of Saudi Arabia and yellow thunderstorm warnings for parts of central Mecca Province.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region due to reduced visibility caused by fog and dust. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations in coastal parts of the country if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the region. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides and mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Israel Meteorological Service
Jordan Meteorological Department
Lebanon Meteorological Service
Saudi Arabia National Center of Meteorology