13 Feb 2023 | 09:00 PM UTC
New Zealand: Adverse weather forecast across North Island and northern South Island through at least Feb. 15 /update 2
Severe weather due to Cyclone Gabrielle forecast across northern and central New Zealand through Feb. 15. Widespread disruptions reported.
Event
Heavy rainfall and strong winds are forecast to continue across New Zealand's North Island and northern South Island through at least Feb. 15. Subtropical Cyclone Gabrielle is forecast to continue moving southeastward early Feb. 14, tracking close to the east coast of the North Island, before moving away to the southeast from late Feb. 14. Impacts from Gabrielle were being felt across much of the North Island Feb. 13, and further significant rainfall and damaging winds are forecast across parts of northern and central New Zealand through Feb. 14. In addition, large waves, storm surge, and coastal inundation are likely to continue to affect exposed eastern coasts of the North Island. The heaviest rainfall is likely in Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, and Northland; dangerous river conditions and significant flooding are likely. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas, and landslides on unstable slopes and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages. The strongest wind is likely in Auckland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Northland, and Taranaki; widespread damage is likely, especially to trees and power lines. Major power outages have been reported in parts of the North Island.
As of early Feb. 14, the Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService) had issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:
Red Heavy Rain Warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Coromandel Peninsula; Hawke's Bay; and Northland south of Kaitaia.
Red Strong Wind Warnings: Auckland, including Great Barrier Island and other islands in the Hauraki Gulf; Coromandel Peninsula; Northland; and Taranaki.
Orange Heavy Rain Warnings: Bay of Plenty west of Whakatane; Gisborne; eastern Marlborough south of Blenheim, including the Kaikoura Coast; Mount Taranaki; and Wairarapa, including the Tararua District.
Orange Strong Wind Warnings: Across much of the rest of the North Island not under red wind warnings and across northern parts of the South Island.
Orange Heavy Swell Warnings: Wairarapa from Turakirae Head to Mataikona.
Yellow Heavy Rain Watches: Canterbury Plains north of Christchurch.
Yellow Strong Wind Watches: Westland north of Fox Glacier.
Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Authorities have warned that coastal flooding and erosion are likely for areas along the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty due to record storm surge.
As of Feb. 14, officials have declared a national state of emergency; the declaration reportedly applies in regions that had declared local states of emergency, including Auckland, Bay of Plenty, Hawke's Bay, Northland, Tairawhiti, and Waikato. Authorities have reported that one firefighter is unaccounted for after two houses collapsed in a landslide in Auckland Region's Muriwai Feb. 13. Residents on Motutara Road and Domain Crescent in Muriwai have been urged to evacuate. Around 50 apartments in the Mt. Eden area of central Auckland have been evacuated due to fears that a nearby steel tower may collapse, and multiple homes in Birkenhead on the North Shore have been evacuated due to falling trees. Around 500 homes in coastal areas of Opotiki District in the Bay of Plenty Region have been evacuated due to the threat of coastal flooding, and other evacuations have been reported in low-lying areas of Whangarei and Waikato districts. Some residents in low-lying areas of Gisborne have been asked to leave their homes due to rising river levels, and locals are being asked to conserve water due to a break in Gisborne City's water supply. Flooding and landslides have also cut off many communities in the Coromandel Peninsula. More than 60,000 homes were without power across the North Island as of early Feb. 14. Authorities are urging people across the North Island to shelter indoors until the worst of the weather has passed.
Auckland Airport (AKL) has stated that 301 domestic flights were canceled Feb. 13, while 85 out of 104 international flights remained grounded. Air New Zealand (NZ) has stated that over 500 flights were canceled Feb. 12-14, including all flights at Auckland, Hamilton, Tauranga, and Taupo through at least midday Feb. 14 and all flights to and from Australia and Pacific Island Feb. 13. More than 29,000 customers are affected.
Multiple state highways across the North Island are closed due to severe weather, flooding, and landslides. For more information on the latest situation regarding road closures, click here.
All train services in Auckland are canceled through at least midday Feb. 14. Bus services are running, but disruptions are possible. Some bus and rail services have been canceled in Wellington Feb. 14, as well as East by West ferry services. Interislander services across the Cook Strait are canceled from 02:00 Feb. 14, while the Picton Port is also closed through at least 22:00 Feb. 14 due to high wind and swell conditions.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall. Additional power outages are possible in areas impacted by the weather system.
Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. The disruptive weather may cause additional delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas subject to heavy rainfall and track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after weather conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast or reported. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
