Nigeria: As of Feb. 27, political gatherings possible nationwide following presidential election Feb. 25; violence possible /update 3

Event

As of Feb. 27, political gatherings and related activities may persist across Nigeria following the presidential election Feb. 25. At the time of writing, disruptive protests are ongoing in parts of Lagos and Rivers states; other locations may be affected. Such actions may intensify following the release of official results. While the electoral commission has begun to release state-by-state results, the final count will not be announced for several days; the exact date is unclear.

Despite localized political violence reported in some areas, voting day passed overall peacefully nationwide. There have been, however, reports of irregularities raised by observers, including polling units not opening, and malfunctions of the electoral voting system.

Should a second round be necessary, it will be held within 21 days after the first round between the top two candidates.

Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near political party headquarters, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices, and government budlings. Reports of fraud or irregularities, legitimate or not, have the potential to fuel significant unrest, notably by losing supporters. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events are also possible during the election period.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to fair and peaceful 2023 elections. The main candidates are Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party, LP), and to a lesser extent Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP). Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country.

The Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections will be held March 11. The electoral campaign runs until March 9.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation, avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution, and avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all ground transport services before travel. Adhere to all instructions issued by the local authorities.