Nigeria: As of Feb. 28, political gatherings likely nationwide amid reports of irregularities following presidential election Feb. 25 /update 4

Event

As of Feb. 28, political gatherings are likely to persist across Nigeria amid claims of irregularities following the presidential election Feb. 25. Tensions are particularly elevated after observers, including the EU mission and the ECOWAS, and some opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities. Reports of fraud or irregularities, legitimate or not, have the potential to fuel significant unrest, notably by supporters of losing candidates and parties.

Even though officials maintain a substantial security presence across the country, notably in urban centers, episodes of unrest have been reported in parts of Lagos State, including Lagos Island Feb. 27, following the announcement of results in the state. Electoral personnel in Rivers State suspended the collation of results over death threats Feb. 28. Activists denouncing the irregularities also marched in Abuja Feb. 28; most protests in Abuja occurred near the International Conference Center (ICC), where state-by-state result collation is ongoing. Protests will likely persist within the vicinity of the ICC until a winner is declared. Similar political gatherings and related unrest remain increasingly likely at the state level as the electoral commission has begun to release state-by-state results. Such actions may intensify following the release of all official results; the exact date for the release of the official result is unclear.

Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near political party headquarters, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices, and government budlings. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events are also possible during the election period.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to fair and peaceful 2023 elections. The main candidates are Bola Tinubu (APC), Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party, PDP), Peter Obi (Labour Party, LP), and to a lesser extent Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party, NNPP). Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country. Should a second round be necessary, it will be held between the top two candidates within 21 days after the first round.

The Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections will be held March 11. The electoral campaign runs until March 9.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation, avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution, and avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all ground transport services before travel. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.