South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone 15P tracking west-southwestward towards Vanuatu as of Feb. 27

Event

Tropical Cyclone 15P is tracking west-southwestward in South Pacific towards Vanuatu as of Feb. 27. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 641 km (398 miles) north-northeast of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate the system will gradually turn to track south-southwest while strengthening rapidly into a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone before making landfall over Epi Island, Vanuatu, late Feb. 28. The storm is likely to track south then south-southeastward while strengthening slightly and make additional landfalls over Tanna and Aneityum islands, Vanuatu, the afternoon of March 1. The storm is forecast to pass well east of New Caledonia late March 1 before tracking southeastward away from New Caledonia and Vanuatu through early March 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 27, the Vanuatu Meteorological Services has issued a tropical cyclone warning; a yellow alert is in place for Torba, Penama, Sanma, and Malampa provinces, while a blue alert has been issued for Shefa and Tafea provinces. Damaging gale force winds of 63-87 kph (39-54 mph) are likely over Torba, Penama, Sanma, and Malampa provinces from late Feb. 27. Heavy rainfalls are forecast over the northern provinces of Vanuatu; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to the river banks, and along the coast from late Feb. 27. Seas will be rough to very rough with heavy swells likely over the northern and central waters of Vanuatu. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorological Services