South Pacific: Tropical Cyclone Judy tracking southwestward towards Vanuatu as of Feb. 28 /update 2

Event

Category 1 Tropical Cyclone Judy is tracking southwestward in South Pacific towards Vanuatu as of Feb. 28. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 413 km (257 miles) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly and make landfall over Vanuatu's Maewo and Ambae islands late Feb. 28 and another landfall over Ambrym Island early March 1. Judy is likely to strengthen into a Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone as it turns to track southward and make a close approach to Efate Island later in the morning. The storm is forecast to turn to track southeastward after passing Efate Island and make another landfall over Tanna and Aneityum islands late March 1. Judy is forecast to weaken into a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone and then a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it tracks generally southeastward away from Vanuatu and New Caledonia into the South Pacific March 2-4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 28, the Vanuatu Meteorological Services has issued red tropical cyclone warnings for Penama, Sanma, and Torba provinces, yellow warnings for Malampa Province, and blue warnings for Shefa and Tafea provinces. Damaging gale force winds of 63-87 kph (39-54 mph) are likely over Torba, Penama, Sanma, and Malampa provinces Feb. 28. Heavy rainfalls are forecast over the northern provinces of Vanuatu; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to the river banks, and along the coast from late Feb. 27. Seas will be rough to very rough with heavy swells likely over the northern and central waters of Vanuatu.

Meteo France New Caledonia issued yellow (lowest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings across most of New Caledonia. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorological Services