Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone Judy tracking south-southeastward over southern Vanuatu as of March 1 /update 4

Event

Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Judy is tracking south-southeastward across southern Vanuatu as of March 1. As of 14:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 65 km (40 miles) south of Port Vila, Vanuatu.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall over Tanna Island the evening of March 1 before strengthening into a Category 4 Severe Tropical Cyclone as it passes west of Aneityum Island late the same day. Judy is forecast to weaken into a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone and then a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it tracks generally southeastward away from Vanuatu and New Caledonia into the South Pacific Ocean March 2-4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of March 1, the Vanuatu Meteorological Services has issued red tropical cyclone warnings for Malampa, Penama, Shefa, and Tafea provinces, as well as blue alerts for Sanma and Torba provinces. Destructive hurricane-force winds of 165 kph (103 mph) will continue to affect Shefa Province and will affect Tafea Province March 1. Destructive storm-force winds of 110 kph (68 mph) will continue to affect parts of central and southern islands and damaging gale-force winds of 63-87 kph (39-54 mph) will continue to affect Penama, Sanma, Tafea, and Malampa provinces. Heavy rainfall are forecast over central, southern, and parts of northern Vanuatu; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to the river banks, and along the coast. Seas will be rough to very rough with heavy swells likely over the waters of Vanuatu.

Emergency crews have evacuated some people in Sanma Province to higher ground. Authorities have advised residents in low-lying areas to seek shelter during the passage of the storm, and have established emergency shelters in Port Vila and other at-risk areas for those unable to shelter safely at home. Air Vanuatu (NF) has announced the cancellation of all international and domestic flights Feb. 27-March 2 due to the forecast adverse weather associated with Judy. Commercial vessels have been advised to find safe anchorage whilst the storm passes. Schools have been closed in affected areas. Power outages have been reported in several parts of Port Vila.

Meteo France New Caledonia issued a cyclone pre-alert warning throughout the territory. The storm system is forecast to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds late March 1-2, especially over the Loyalty Islands. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorological Services