Vanuatu: Tropical Cyclone Judy tracking southward over northern Vanuatu as of late Feb. 28 /update 3

Event

Category 3 Severe Tropical Cyclone Judy is tracking southward just to the east of Vanuatu's northern islands as of late Feb. 28. As of 23:00 VUT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 244 km (152 miles) north of Port Vila, Vanuatu, just off the northeast coast of Pentecost Island.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks south-southeastward, remaining just to the east or possibly at times over the shore of Vanuatu's northern and central islands early March 1, before skirting the eastern coasts of Vanuatu's southern islands late March 1. Judy is forecast to weaken into a Category 2 Tropical Cyclone and then a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it tracks generally southeastward away from Vanuatu and New Caledonia into the South Pacific March 2-4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Feb. 28, the Vanuatu Meteorological Services has issued red tropical cyclone warnings for Malampa, Penama, Sanma, and Shefa provinces, as well as yellow warnings for Tafea and Torba provinces. Damaging gale force winds of 63-87 kph (39-54 mph) are likely over Torba, Penama, Sanma, and Malampa provinces late Feb. 28-March 1, and gusts of up to 150 kph (93 mph) are possible near the storm's center of circulation. Heavy rainfalls are forecast over much of northern and parts of central Vanuatu; flash flooding is likely in low-lying areas, areas close to the river banks, and along the coast from late Feb. 28. Seas will be rough to very rough with heavy swells likely over the northern and central waters of Vanuatu.

Authorities have advised residents in low-lying areas to seek shelter during the passage of the storm. Emergency shelters have been established in Port Vila and other at-risk areas for those unable to shelter safely at home. Air Vanuatu (NF) has announced the cancelation of all international and domestic flights Feb. 27-March 2 due to the forecast adverse weather associated with Judy. Commercial vessels have been advised to find safe anchorage whilst the storm passes. Schools have been closed in affected areas.

Meteo France New Caledonia issued a cyclone pre-alert warning throughout the territory. The storm system is forecast to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds late March 1-2, especially over the Loyalty Islands. Authorities will likely update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Meteo France New Caledonia
Vanuatu Meteorological Services