Ethiopia: Security environment in Tigray will likely remain volatile through mid-April despite parliament removing TPLF from terrorist list

Event

The security situation in the Tigray region will likely remain volatile through at least mid-April despite the Ethiopian parliament removing Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) from the designated terrorists list on March 22. The move comes after the federal government and TPLF forces signed a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, on Nov. 2.

Several steps have been taken to implement the peace agreement since it was signed; TPLF leaders announced March 7 the formation of an interim government in compliance with the Nov. 2 deal and were waiting to negotiate an agreement with the federal government. While federal authorities have not commented on the progress made by the TPLF, several issues remain, including the complete disarmament of the TPLF's forces and the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from rural areas of Tigray.

Further fighting may occur between the federal forces and TPLF rebels, given that the peace deal will take a significant time to implement fully. A heightened military presence is likely in the region over the coming weeks. Disruptive protests in response to the removal of TPLF from the terrorist list are also possible in major cities, including Addis Ababa. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near any protests that may materialize; officials may move quickly to disperse such gatherings.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Consider deferring travel to Tigray region and surrounding areas impacted by fighting. Persons in Tigray region should liaise with trusted contacts. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.