Ethiopia: Security situation in Tigray will likely remain volatile through late April despite government terminating charges against TPLF leaders /update 2

Event

The security situation in the Tigray region will likely remain volatile through at least late April despite the federal government terminating charges against Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) leaders. The move comes after the federal government and TPLF formed an Interim Regional Administration (IRA) on March 22.

Since the federal government and TPLF forces signed a peace agreement in Pretoria, South Africa, on Nov. 2, several steps have been implemented, including the appointment of Getachew Reda, a former advisor to the president of Tigray and executive committee member of Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), as the IRA leader. However, key issues remain, including the complete disarmament of the TPLF's forces and the withdrawal of non-government forces (Eritrean troops and Amhara militias) from rural areas of Tigray.

Further fighting may occur between the federal forces and TPLF rebels, given that the peace deal will take a significant time to implement fully. A heightened military presence is likely in the region over the coming weeks. Disruptive protests in response to the termination of charges against TPLF leaders are also possible in major cities, including Addis Ababa. Localized transport and business disruptions are possible near any protests that may materialize; officials may move quickly to disperse such gatherings.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations, crowds, and concentrations of security personnel. Consider deferring travel to Tigray region and surrounding areas impacted by fighting. Persons in Tigray region should liaise with trusted contacts. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Heed instructions from authorities.