01 Mar 2023 | 11:22 AM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather forecast over northern and northwestern regions through at least March 3
Severe weather forecast across northern and northwestern Mexico through March 3. Possible transport, business, and utility disruptions.
Event
Severe weather is forecast across much of northern and northwestern Mexico through at least March 3. A cold front is forecast to arrive in northwestern Mexico March 1 before moving across north-central regions March 2. The front is expected to bring strong winds, showers, snowfall in mountainous areas, and cold temperatures across the affected region. Rainfall totals of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) are expected over parts of Baja California and Sonora states March 1, as well as totals of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) over Chihuahua March 1-2 and Sonora March 2. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes in the affected regions. Snowfall and sleet are possible over mountainous areas of Chihua and Sonoara March 1-2 and Baja California March 1. Winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are possible across the region and could generate dust storms in arid areas. The strong winds will also lead to blowing snow in mountainous areas and waves of up to 5 meters (16 feet) off the coast of the Baja California Peninsula. Temperatures are also expected to drop throughout the region and could reach as low as -15 C (5 F) in mountainous parts of Baja California, Chihuahua, and Sonora.
Hazardous Conditions
Flash and areal flooding are possible where precipitation falls as rain. Such flooding is particularly possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Precipitation is forecast to fall as snow and sleet in some mountainous parts of the affected regions over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Power outages could occur throughout the affected areas.
Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.
The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding or snow could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.
Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
