Middle East: Adverse weather forecast across much of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territories through at least March 15

Event

Adverse weather conditions are forecast across much of Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Territoires through at least March 15. A low-pressure system near Cyprus will bring heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds across the region. Heavy downpours may trigger flooding in low-lying areas, and strong winds could lead to sporadic power outages.

As of March 14, the Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) has issued orange thunderstorm warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for parts of southern Israel and much of the West Bank and orange rough sea warnings along the Mediterranean coastline. Yellow flash flood warnings have been issued for southern and eastern regions, and yellow mountain obscuration warnings for northern and central mountainous areas.

The Jordan Meteorological Department has warned of possible flooding in valleys and low-lying areas due to thunderstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall. Areas around the Dead Sea and Aqaba are expected to be most affected. Downpours will also cause slippery road conditions, and strong winds could cause dust storms in arid areas. Authorities closed schools in Aqaba on March 14 due to the adverse weather.

Lebanon's Meteorological Service has warned of scattered rainfall accompanied by thunderstorm activity and winds gusting up to 60 kph (37 mph) across the country March 14-15. Fog and snowfall are also possible in mountainous areas, leading to hazardous travel conditions due to reduced visibility.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Authorities may issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant winds, flooding, and/or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Transport
The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout the affected area. Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles.

Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Mediterranean coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Seek updated information on weather and road conditions before driving through areas where severe weather is forecast. Plan accordingly for potential freight delivery delays if routing shipments by truck through the affected area. Do not attempt to drive through flooded areas. Review contingency plans. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Israel Meteorological Service (IMS)
Jordan Meteorological Department
Lebanon Meteorological Service