Mozambique Channel: Moderate Tropical Storm Freddy transiting towards Madagascar in the Mozambique Channel, March 5

Event

Moderate Tropical Storm Freddy is tracking southeast toward southern Madagascar early March 5. The storm's center of circulation is approximately 750 km (466 miles) southwest of Antananarivo. The storm is forecast to continue to track in a southeasterly direction through early March 6 before changing track and moving in a northwesterly directly back towards the center of the Mozambique Channel. The storm is also forecast to strengthen over the coming days. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Freddy has impacted the region in recent weeks. In February, approximately 232,000 people were affected by Freddy-related flooding and rainfall in Mozambique. Infrastructure, including homes, roads, and schools, were damaged or destroyed. The Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, and Sofala provinces were worst affected. In Madagascar, Freddy impacted approximately 226,000 people, primarily in the Vatovavy Region. The storm has mostly impacted agricultural production.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)