Nigeria: As of March 1, political gatherings likely nationwide following release of presidential results; violence possible /update 5

Event

As of March 1, political gatherings will likely persist across Nigeria after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party winner of the presidential election. Tensions are particularly elevated after observers, including the EU mission and the ECOWAS, and some opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities with the PDP and LP calling for fresh elections. Reports of fraud or irregularities, legitimate or not, have the potential to fuel significant unrest, notably by supporters of losing candidates and parties.

Even though officials maintain a substantial security presence across the country, notably in urban centers, episodes of unrest have been reported in parts of Nigeria, including in Lagos Feb. 27. Electoral personnel in Rivers State suspended the collation of results over death threats Feb. 28. Activists denouncing the irregularities also marched in Abuja Feb. 28; most protests in Abuja occurred near the International Conference Center (ICC). Tinubu is expected to receive the presidential certificate at the ICC at around 15:00 March 1; the likelihood of localized unrest is elevated in the vicinity. Political activists have reportedly gathered near the Grand Square Bridge in Abuja from 09:00 March 1.

Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near APC and other political party headquarters, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices, and government budlings. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events are also possible during the election period.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to a fair and peaceful 2023 general election. Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country.

The Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections are scheduled for March 11. The electoral campaign runs until March 9.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation, avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution, and avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all ground transport services before travel. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.