Nigeria: As of March 3, political gatherings likely nationwide following release of presidential results; tensions elevated, violence possible /update 6

Event

As of March 3, political gatherings will likely persist across Nigeria after the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party winner of the presidential election. Tensions are elevated after observers, including the EU mission and the ECOWAS, and some opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities with the PDP and LP calling for fresh elections. Reports of fraud or irregularities, legitimate or not, have the potential to fuel significant unrest, notably by supporters of losing candidates and parties.

While the PDP and the LP have vowed to challenge the election results via legal means, presidential candidates Atiku Abubakar (PDP) and Peter Obi (LP) have also called on their supporters to remain calm and peaceful. Localized protests denouncing the results nonetheless continue in parts of the country without major disruptions reported, including in Benin (Edo State), where protesters reportedly intend to protest on a daily basis at the National Museum through the March 11 governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections.

Officials will likely maintain a substantial security presence across the country, notably in urban centers, through at least the end of the election cycle mid-March. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near APC and other political party headquarters, INEC offices, and government budlings. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events are also possible during the election period.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to a fair and peaceful 2023 general election. Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country.

The governorship and state Houses of Assembly elections are scheduled for March 11. The electoral campaign runs until March 9.

Advice

Remain apprised of the political situation, avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution, and avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all ground transport services before travel. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.