Nigeria: Political gatherings likely nationwide through mid-March /update 7

Event

Political gatherings will likely persist nationwide following the release of the presidential election results and ahead of the Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections scheduled for March 11. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party winner of the Feb. 25 presidential election. Tensions remain elevated after observers, including the EU mission, and some opposition parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), raised concerns over widespread irregularities. Reports of fraud or irregularities, legitimate or not, have the potential to fuel significant unrest, notably by supporters of losing candidates and parties.

The PDP and the LP have vowed to challenge the election results via legal means. Localized protests denouncing the results continue in parts of the country without major disruptions reported. Presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar (PDP) led a peaceful demonstration towards the INEC headquarters in Abuja on March 7, while Peter Obi (LP) will go to the Court of Appeal in Abuja on March 8 to attend a hearing related to the inspection of electoral materials used during the presidential election; the hearing is expected at around 14:00. Violence is possible near the court premises.

Officials will likely maintain a substantial security presence across the country, notably in urban centers, through at least the end of the election cycle mid-March. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near APC and other political party headquarters, INEC offices, and government budlings. Officials may impose restrictive measures such as temporary curfews to prevent or in the event of significant unrest. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible, particularly in urban areas. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events are also possible during the election period.

Context

Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has completed his two constitutionally allowed mandates and has repeatedly committed to a fair and peaceful 2023 general election. Since 1999, only the APC and the PDP parties have ruled the country.

Advice

Avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings as a precaution. Avoid discussing politically sensitive topics in public. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Confirm all ground transport services before travel. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.