Nigeria: Protests, security measures likely nationwide following governorship election results at least through March /update 11

Event

Protests and increased security measures are likely nationwide, at least through March, following the Governorship and State Houses of Assembly elections. The Kano State government imposed a dawn-to-dusk curfew on March 20 in anticipation of unrest. As of late March 20, counting is still ongoing in most states, however counting has been suspended in Abia and Enugu states. The ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) has retained control of Lagos, but the losing candidates have reportedly announced their intention to challenge the results.

Political gatherings are likely nationwide through at least the end of the election cycle and its aftermath through late March. Likely gathering locations include main urban centers, notably near APC and other political party headquarters, Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) offices, and government buildings. Clashes between supporters of rival political groups remain possible, particularly in urban areas such as Abuja, Lagos, and Port Harcourt. Other forms of election-related violence are possible, including targeted assassinations and abductions. Militant and criminal attacks targeting election-related sites and events may occur during the election period.

Increased security is likely near the INEC offices, governmental buildings, and near party headquarters. Ensuing transport or commercial disruptions are probable near protest areas. Officials may impose additional restrictive measures, such as temporary curfews, to prevent violence or in the event of significant unrest.

Context

The governorship elections were held in 28 states, including Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo, and Osun, as they are conducting governorship elections off-cycle. Voting occurred March 18-19, with reports of sporadic incidents of violence and unrest in Lagos, Sokoto state, Kano, and Port Harcourt.

Advice

Monitor the security situation and avoid routes connecting INEC offices. Avoid discussing political topics in public. Avoid all public demonstrations and political gatherings. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Exercise extreme caution and refrain from nonessential activities across Nigeria in the days following March 20.