Thailand: General election to occur nationwide May 14

Event

Thailand is set to hold its general elections May 14, the second since the military coup in 2014. Over 52 million people will vote throughout the country for 500 lower house seats. Candidate registration, including party nominees for prime minister, will occur April 4-7. Early voting is scheduled to take place May 7.

Campaign activities are expected to intensify in the run-up to the vote, particularly over the coming weekends before polling day. Large campaign rallies and parades are likely in major cities, especially Bangkok. Attendance at larger rallies may be hundreds to a few thousand people. Pro-democracy activists may hold demonstrations to demand fair elections and protest against perceived military interference. Allegations of electoral fraud or other poll-related disputes could lead to civil unrest during and after the election. Gatherings will likely occur at prominent roadways and intersections, public squares, landmarks, and outside shopping centers.

Authorities will almost certainly bolster security in the lead-up to and on election day. Heightened security is likely at nomination centers April 4-7 and voting and counting centers May 14. Security will likely be tightest in the restive Deep South region, where separatist militants could stage attacks in the days surrounding the election, as well as in hotly contested locations like Bangkok, Chiangmai, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Nakhon Si Thammarat. Authorities will likely monitor gatherings and could erect roadblocks near larger rallies and at nomination, voting, and counting centers, which may prompt localized business and transport disruptions. Clashes between security forces and protesters or rival groups of supporters are possible.

Context

Thailand's 2023 general election is expected to heighten political tensions between military-backed and pro-democracy parties. Political parties have been campaigning for months, with the opposition Pheu Thai Party (PTP) and its leader, Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, topping opinion polls. Incumbent Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, who led the coups that ousted Thaksin and Yingluck, joined the United Thai Nation party (UTNP) instead of running for the ruling Palang Pracharat Party (PPRP). However, he can only serve for another two years even if he wins the election due to a constitutional term limit. Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan will be PPRP's candidate. The military is likely to maintain its influence in Thai politics regardless of the election outcome, with the possibility of a coup if pro-democracy parties emerge victorious. Additionally, royalists could hold demonstrations if monarchy- and military-backed party parties are unsuccessful in the election.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations, political rallies, political party offices, and polling stations through May 14 as a precaution. Seek updated information from local, trusted sources on election rallies and associated disruptions. Use alternative routes to avoid election-related events; allow additional time to reach destinations. Always carry valid identification and be prepared to display documents at checkpoints. Heed all instructions from security personnel. Defer nonessential travel to the Deep South through at least May 14.