France: Activists likely to stage protests and strikes nationwide into early May after Constitutional Council approves pension reform plan /update 3

Event

Activists will likely continue to stage protests and strikes across France into early May to denounce the government's pension reforms. As of April 21, demonstrations are continuing nationwide. In recent days, President Macron has toured a number of towns across France and has been met with noisy protests. Police forces have forcibly dispersed or otherwise pushed back demonstrators. Further protests are likely, some of which may become violent.

Labor unions have called for a further nationwide strike day on April 28. As of April 21, the impact of the strike is not known. Based on recent nationwide industrial action, it is likely that the SNCF national rail network and the Paris region public transport operators will run between 50 and 75 percent of trains. If air traffic control (ATC) staff join the strike, flights will likely be reduced at Paris-Orly (ORY) and some other regional airports by around 20 percent. Government servants, teachers, and healthcare workers may also join the action. Some staff at private companies will likely participate in any such labor actions, resulting in business disruptions and closures.

Labor unions plan mass demonstrations on May 1 to mark International Workers' Day. Large protests are likely nationwide. In Paris, the following planned events are likely to attract tens of thousands of attendees:

Main demonstration: Gathering at 14:30 in Place de la Republique, then a march to Place de la Nation via Place de la Bastille.
Pre-demonstration march by the CNT union: Gathering at 12:00 at Place des Fetes, then a march to Place de la Republique.
Demonstrations by Yellow Vest movement: Gathering at 09:30 at Place de la Porte de Vanves, then a march to Place Henri Langlois, and at 15:00 at Porte de Clignancourt, then a march to Place Pigalle.

Authorities will probably deploy an increased security presence to the sites of additional demonstrations and around government buildings. Protesters may block major roads - especially ring roads close to major cities - and obstruct access to transport hubs, such as bus and train depots. Demonstrators may also engage in further acts of vandalism, including arson. Large crowds and associated security measures may prompt authorities to close roads and enact temporary movement restrictions, resulting in localized traffic disruptions. Clashes between activists and security services cannot be ruled out; riot police may use tear gas or similar measures to disperse unruly crowds.

Context

The government's pension reform raises the retirement age from 62 to 64 and is a landmark policy of President Emmanuel Macron. As of April 21, labor unions and opposition parties have led 13 days of national general strikes since Jan. 19. The industrial action has been accompanied by hundreds of major demonstrations across the country.

The demonstrations became increasingly intense and frequently violent after the president invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution. This enabled the government to pass the pension reform without requiring a vote in the National Assembly. On April 14, the Constitutional Council's partially approved the pension reform plan, after which the president signed the increased pension age into law.

Advice

Confirm all transport reservations as well as public- and private-sector appointments into at least early May, including at public health centers and other government facilities. Do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and to mitigate personal exposure to any associated disruptions. Allow extra time for travel in major cities. Heed instructions from local authorities and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation.