Israel, PT: Tensions to remain elevated in East Jerusalem and West Bank through at least late May /update 10

Event

Tensions will almost certainly remain heightened in East Jerusalem and the West Bank through at least late May amid a series of deadly attacks, clashes, and Israeli security operations in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Israeli security forces continue to launch frequent raids in the West Bank and impose movement restrictions on some communities in the territory, often in response to Palestinian attacks on Israeli settlers and security forces. Similarly, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have occasionally deployed additional units to Huwara in Nablus Governorate following settlers' violence against Palestinians.

On Jan. 26, nine Palestinians, including seven militants, were killed in an Israeli security operation in Jenin. Additionally, on Feb. 22, an Israeli raid in Nablus and associated fighting left at least 11 Palestinians dead and over 100 others wounded. The raids were among the deadliest incidents in the West Bank since 2005. The incidents have escalated tensions between Gaza-based militants and the IDF. Israeli forces launched retaliatory airstrikes on the Gaza Strip after militants fired rockets toward Israel following each raid.

Palestinian demonstrations and strikes are also almost certain over the coming weeks, particularly in the West Bank, to denounce Israeli security operations, building demolitions, associated clashes, and the arrests and killings of Palestinians. Further clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces are likely in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. An uptick in armed Palestinian attacks against Israeli individuals and interests is likely in the West Bank as Palestinian militant groups continue to advocate violence; attacks are also possible across Israel. Israeli settlers may stage further demonstrations and clash with Palestinian communities in the West Bank, prompting retaliatory Palestinian attacks near Israeli settlements.

Additional cross-border exchanges of fire between the IDF and Gaza-based militants are possible, particularly if there is a further increase in violence between Palestinians and Israeli authorities in East Jerusalem and the West Bank over the coming weeks. Flashpoint areas for the violence include parts of Jerusalem's Old City (including the Temple Mount/Al-Haram ash-Sharif compound, Damascus Gate, Lion's Gate, Herod's Gate, and Chain Gate), as well as Jenin, Nablus, Hebron, Palestinian refugee camps, and Israeli checkpoints and settlements in the West Bank.

Context

Authorities in Israel have bolstered security nationwide in the aftermath of several terror attacks since the early spring of 2022. The series of attacks nationwide, including in Be'er Sheva, Hadera, Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv, prompted authorities to launch Operation Break the Wave in late March 2022. The operation focuses on the West Bank and aims to stem the wave of terror attacks that have killed more than 30 people and wounded dozens of others. As part of Break the Wave, the IDF has conducted regular raids against suspected Palestinian militant cells in Jenin and Nablus in recent weeks. Israeli forces have arrested more than 2,500 Palestinians and killed more than 200 others since the operation began; Israel asserts that most of those killed either clashed with the IDF or attacked Israeli forces or civilians.

Advice

Exercise caution while operating in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Avoid all demonstrations. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in East Jerusalem and the West Bank before traveling. Heed the advice of local authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints without authorities' permission.