Southern Europe: Adverse weather forecast across parts of southern Europe through at least May 17

Event

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are forecast across parts of southern Europe through at least May 17. The affected area includes parts of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Hungary, Italy, Kosovo, Montenegro, Serbia, and Slovenia. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas, and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and hail.

As of May 15, the various meteorological institutions of the respective countries have issued the following weather warnings:

• Red heavy rainfall warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale): Sicily Region in Italy.

• Red strong wind warnings: Velebit Channel coastal waters in Croatia.

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings: Banja Luka, Bihac, Mostar, Prijedor, and Trebinje regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Dubrovnik and Karlovac regions in Croatia; Gyor-Moson-Sporon and Vas counties in Hungary; Emilia-Romagna and Marche regions in Italy; Adriatic coast region of Montenegro; Backa, Pomoravlje, and Sumadija regions in Serbia; and northeast and southeast regions of Slovenia.

• Orange thunderstorm warnings: Emilia-Romagna, Marche, and Sicily regions in Italy.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Foca, Mostar, and Trebinje regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; most coastal waters of Croatia; Abruzzo, Calabria, Campania, Emilia-Romagna, Friuli Venezia, Marche, Puglia, and Sicily regions in Italy; and the southwest region of Slovenia.

• Yellow heavy rainfall warnings: Foca, Livno, Sarajevo, and Tuzla regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Gospic, Knin, and Split regions in Croatia; Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Lazio, Puglia, Tuscany, and Umbria regions in Italy; across Kosovo; across central and northern Montenegro; across Serbia; and central and southwest regions of Slovenia.

• Yellow thunderstorms warnings: Banja Luka, Foca, Mostar, Prijedor, Sarajevo, Rebinje, Tuzla, and Visegrad regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Dubrovnik Region in Croatia; across Hungary; Abruzzo, Basilicata, Calabria, Campania, Lazio, Puglia, Tuscany, and Umbria regions in Italy; across Kosovo; across Montenegro; and across Serbia.

  Yellow strong wind warnings: Banja Luka, Livno, Prijedor, Sarajevo, and Visegrad regions in Bosnia and Herzegovina; Dubrovnik, Rijeka, and Split regions in Croatia; Basilicata, Lazio, Sardinia, Tuscany, and Umbria regions in Italy; across Montenegro; Banat and Pomoravlje regions in Serbia; and central, northeast, northwest, and southeast regions of Slovenia.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Meteo Alarm
Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Hydrometeorological Institute
Croatia Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ)
Hungary National Meteorological Service
Italy Meteorological Service
Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia
Slovenia National Meteorological Service