Turkiye: Rival presidential candidates to hold political rallies through early May

Event

Turkiye will hold a presidential and parliamentary election on May 14. Election-related events are likely to continue in the run-up to the poll. Gatherings linked to presidential candidates are likely to be particularly well-attended. On April 30, Erdogan and his chief rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, drew crowds of tens of thousands in Ankara and Izmir respectively. On May 7, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will address a mass rally at the Attaturk Airport Public Garden in Istanbul.

The election is likely to be closely contested; mounting tensions and counterprotests are possible at all events. Authorities will likely deploy police to monitor and facilitate all events. Security measures will likely be further enhanced on election day, May 14, and in its aftermath if the polls lead to a contested result. Large crowds and related security measures will likely cause localized traffic and public transportation disruptions. Security forces will likely react swiftly to any counterprotests; clashes with protesters cannot be ruled out.

Context

Opinion polls indicate the contest is likely to be close, particularly for the post of president. President Erdogan is the leader of the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party. Kilicdaroglu leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and is the presidential nominee for a bloc of six opposition parties, known as Nation Alliance.

A significant increase in political activism is likely in the run-up to the elections. The polarized political environment and partisan influence on state institutions increase the likelihood of escalation to violence. Turkiye is also subject to an underlying high threat from terrorism; terrorist groups could target the elections due to their high-profile nature.

Significantly tightened security measures will be in place nationwide to facilitate the elections and mitigate these threats; they will be most noticeable around election facilities and political events.

Civil unrest will likely persist following the elections, particularly in the likelihood that the losing side contests the results, prompting possible security force crackdowns and political purges.

Advice

Avoid rallies and demonstrations as a routine security precaution and to mitigate associated disruptions. Allow extra time to reach destinations in the vicinity of mass events. Heed instructions from security services; leave the area immediately at the first sign of any security disturbance.