Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of May 25 /update 221

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of May 25. While ground combat remains concentrated along frontlines in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, the fiercest fighting continues to take place in Bakhmut. Elsewhere, artillery bombardments and air strikes occur regularly along a wider area, including Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Intensified Russian airstrikes have continued against Kyiv through May. Reports continue to suggest a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive; however, there is insufficient evidence to predict a likely timescale for the operation.

Russian missile and drone attacks against Kyiv have continued on most days. Ukrainian air defenses, with the addition of advanced Western systems, are increasingly capable of neutralizing most Russian missiles and loitering munitions targeting the city. However, falling debris continues to cause fires, minor disruptions, and occasional injuries to civilians. The attacks no longer appear aimed at disrupting Kyiv’s critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes elsewhere in the country are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Further long-range airstrikes and bombardments targeting urban centers are probable in the coming days.

Russian separatist groups Free Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps claim to have carried out limited operations in the Belgorod region of Russia on May 22. Russian authorities are responding by increasing counter-terrorism operations in the area. Tension may increase in the adjacent Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Kharkiv.

Combat continues to remain focused in the Donetsk Region, where Russia's troops are increasingly adopting a defensive posture following the culmination of Moscow's offensive in Bakhmut in mid-May. Ukrainian forces have since conducted limited counterattacks, recapturing territory north and south of Bakhmut. As of May 25, both sides are reportedly continuing limited attacks north of Avdiivka and in the Vuhledar area.

Artillery activity continues daily in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Russian forces consistently target the Dvorichna and Kupyansk areas, although no major ground assault has been reported over the week of May 19-25. Limited ground assaults, likely reconnaissance-in-force, continue throughout most of the line of contact.

In the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, Russian and Ukrainian forces continue to reposition troops and exchange heavy artillery fire amid persistent rumors of a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive. Ukrainian forces continue limited ground operations on Potominskyi Island in the Dnipro River, near the city of Kherson, likely to interdict Russian artillery targeting that city. As of May 25, Ukrainian authorities report that no major counteroffensive operation is foreseen in Kherson Region due to the nature of the terrain, which hampers possible ground assaults in the area.

Context

As the weather warms in Ukraine, most Russian offensive activity appears to have culminated along the line of contact. Russia secured limited gains during its winter offensive, using costly frontal assaults that likely resulted in numerous Russian casualties. As of mid-May Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing their ground offensive activities, mainly in the Donetsk Region, as rumors surrounding a major counteroffensive grow. Additionally, large quantities of advanced Western weaponry and equipment continued to bolster Ukrainian forces from April to May, allowing Ukrainian forces to replenish equipment losses suffered through the winter phase of the conflict.

Ukrainian officials remain cautious in releasing information about major ground operations; the spokesperson for the Ukrainian Command South confirms that Ukrainian troops are involved in limited operations on Potominskyi Island but warned against expectations of a major counteroffensive emerging from this activity. The terrain is largely swampy, and Kyiv continues to lack a significant bridgehead or other means of transporting heavy equipment in large quantities across the Dnipro River. Ukrainian forces are likely to launch other minor offensive operations elsewhere along the southern and eastern fronts in attempts to probe Russian defensive positions before any major combined arms operation commences.

Following the culmination of Moscow's offensive operations, air and missile strikes against Ukraine have increased significantly. Strikes targeting facilities related to Ukraine's war effort, as well as industrial areas in the country's main cities, including Kyiv, Odesa, and Dnipro, are increasingly commonplace. Although missile and UAV strikes report limited success, the intensity and pattern of such strikes are likely to negatively impact Ukrainian society and air defense capabilities in the medium and long term.

Although Russian missile production has reportedly increased, a shortage of advanced precision munitions likely continues to affect military planning in Moscow. However, Russia has increasingly repurposed surface-to-air and anti-ship missiles for ground attacks. Additionally, in recent barrages, Russia has launched older, Soviet-era cruise missiles, such as the Kh-55, without payloads in a likely effort to trigger Ukrainian air defenses, as well as hypersonic Kinzhal missiles. Additionally, Moscow continues to launch Iranian Shahed-136 drones, forcing Ukraine to expend costly and finite resources to repel these attacks and possibly reveal air defense battery positions.

Russian cross-border artillery strikes in the border areas of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions continue to escalate. Although a major offensive does not appear imminent, limited incursions to harass Ukrainian forces and pin significant numbers of defenders in place remain possible. Artillery strikes also regularly cause utility disruptions and civilian casualties.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.