Arabian Sea: Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy tracking northward in the Arabian Sea as of June 11 /update 1

Event

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy is tracking northward in the Arabia Sea June 11. As of 11:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 715 km (444 miles) south of Karachi, Pakistan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly into a very severe cyclonic storm as it tracks generally northwards in the Arabia Sea June 11-13. Biparjoy is then expected to weaken further as it turns to track north-northeastward and then northeastward June 13-14, before making landfall over Kutch District in northwestern Gujarat State, India, close to the border with Sindh Province in Pakistan. After making landfall, the storm is expected to weaken into a severe cyclonic storm and then a cyclonic storm as it continues to track northeastward across northwestern Gujarat, southeastern Sindh, and into southern Rajasthan State June 15-16. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of June 11, the India Meteorological Department has issued yellow cyclone alerts for the Kutch and Saurashtra coasts of Gujarat State. The IMD has warned of increasingly heavy rainfall across parts of Gujarat State June 14-15, with western regions expected to be worst affected. Increasingly strong winds and rough seas are also expected in coastal areas of Gujarat State June 11-15, and storm surge is possible in the vicinity of where the storm makes landfall. The IMD has warned of possible damage to homes, utility infrastructure, roads, and crops, as well as potential flooding and other associated disruptions in parts of Gujarat State during the passing of the storm. Yellow thunderstorm, lightning, and strong wind warnings have been issued across Gujarat for June 10-13, with orange rainfall, thunderstorm, lightning, and strong wind warnings in place for western parts of the state June 14-15 and yellow warnings in eastern areas. Yellow thunderstorm, lightning, and strong wind warnings are also in place for Konkan and Goa June 11-12, and yellow thunderstorm and lightning warnings have been issued across much of northwestern India June 11-15. The IMD has also advised the total suspension of fishing operations in parts of the Arabian Sea through at least June 15.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of strong winds, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, and Umerkot districts of Sindh Province June 13-17 and Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, and Mirpurkhas districts June 13-16. Strong winds could cause damage to unsecured and vulnerable structures, and storm surges are possible in southeastern parts of Sindh close to where the storm makes landfall. The combination of storm surges and heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in affected areas. The department has advised fishermen not to venture out into the Arabia Sea through June 17 due to rough seas associated with Biparjoy. The Karachi Port Trust has issued a red alert and warned that shipping operations will be suspended due to strong winds. Officials in Karachi have banned fishing, sailing, and swimming activities in the city's coastal areas.

Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department