Arabian Sea: Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy tracking northeastward in the Arabian Sea as of June 15 /update 6

Event

Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy is tracking northeastward in the Arabian Sea June 15. As of 11:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 233 km (145 miles) south of Karachi, Pakistan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it tracks northeastward before making landfall over far northwestern Kutch District in Gujarat State, India, close to the border with Sindh Province in Pakistan, late June 15. After making landfall, the storm is expected to weaken into a cyclonic storm and then a depression as it continues to track northeastward across northwestern Gujarat and southeastern Sindh June 16 before dissipating over southwestern Rajasthan State, India, early June 17. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of June 15, the India Meteorological Department has issued red cyclone alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for the Kutch and Saurashtra coasts of Gujarat State. The IMD has warned of heavy rainfall across parts of western Gujarat State June 15 and northern Gujarat and southern Rajasthan June 16-17. Increasingly strong winds and rough seas are also expected in coastal areas of Gujarat State June 15, before gradually decreasing June 16-17. Storm surge is possible in the vicinity of where the storm makes landfall. The IMD has warned of possible damage to homes, utility infrastructure, roads, and crops, as well as potential flooding and other associated disruptions in parts of Gujarat State during the passing of the storm. Western regions of the state are expected to be worst affected. The IMD has also advised the total suspension of fishing operations in parts of the Arabian Sea through at least June 15.

The IMD has issued red heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings across western Gujarat and orange warnings across eastern Gujarat June 15, as well as yellow thunderstorm and lightning warnings across Rajasthan. Red heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings are in place across Gujarat and in western Rajasthan June 16, with orange heavy rainfall warnings in eastern Rajasthan. Red heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and lightning warnings are in place across Rajasthan June 17, with yellow thunderstorm and lightning warnings in place across eastern Gujarat. Orange warnings persist across Rajasthan June 18, as well as yellow warnings for eastern Rajasthan June 19.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of extremely heavy rainfall, very strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts of Sindh Province through June 17. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms are also expected in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Sanghar, and Shaheed Benazirabad districts through June 16. Strong winds could cause damage to unsecured and vulnerable structures, and storm surges are possible in southeastern parts of Sindh close to where the storm makes landfall. The combination of storm surges and heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in affected areas. The department has advised fishermen not to venture out into the Arabia Sea through June 17 due to rough seas associated with Biparjoy.

Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Preparations are ongoing on both sides of the border ahead of the arrival of Biparjoy and severe weather impacts are already being felt in parts of affected area. Authorities reported four fatalities after people were caught in rough seas off Mumbai June 12. Three other fatalities have been reported in Gujarat's Kutch and Rajkot districts as of June 15 amid heavy rainfall and strong winds. Authorities in Gujarat State are evacuating communities within 10 km (6 miles) of the coast in the districts of Kutch, Porbandar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, and Morbi; as of June 15, more than 94,000 people have been evacuated from at-risk areas. Dozens of train services have been canceled to and from the affected areas and flights have been suspended at Bhuj Airport (BHJ) in Kutch District June 14-15. Several ports along Gujarat's coast have suspended operations, including Kanlda and Mundra.

In Sindh province, authorities have evacuated more than 72,000 people in coastal areas of Badin, Sujawal, and Thatta districts as of June 15. Officials in Karachi have also evacuated dozens of people from at-risk buildings, as well as banning fishing, sailing, and swimming activities in the city's coastal areas. The Karachi Port Trust has issued a red alert and warned that shipping operations will be suspended once winds off the coast reach 25 knots (45 kph, 30 mph). Several flights have been delayed and canceled at Jinnah International Airport (KHI) in Karachi June 14-15 and further disruptions are likely in the coming days; airport officials have stated that the airport remains open but all flights will be grounded if wind speeds at the airport reach 30 knots (55 kph, 35 mph).

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department