Arabian Sea: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy tracking north-northwestward in the Arabian Sea as of June 12 /update 2

Event

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy is tracking north-northwestward in the Arabia Sea June 12. As of 11:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 569 km (354 miles) south of Karachi, Pakistan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it continues to track north-northwestward in the Arabia Sea June 12-13 before turning to track northward June 13-14. Biparjoy is then expected to weaken further into a severe cyclonic storm as it turns to track northeastward June 14-15, making landfall over Kutch District in northwestern Gujarat State, India, close to the border with Sindh Province in Pakistan, late June 15. After making landfall, the storm is expected to weaken into a cyclonic storm and then a depression as it continues to track northeastward across northwestern Gujarat, southeastern Sindh, and into southwestern Rajasthan State June 16-17. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of June 12, the India Meteorological Department has issued orange cyclone alerts (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for the Kutch and Saurashtra coasts of Gujarat State. The IMD has warned of increasingly heavy rainfall across parts of Gujarat State June 14-15, before diminishing through June 16. Increasingly strong winds and rough seas are also expected in coastal areas of Gujarat State June 12-15. Storm surge is possible in the vicinity of where the storm makes landfall. The IMD has warned of possible damage to homes, utility infrastructure, roads, and crops, as well as potential flooding and other associated disruptions in parts of Gujarat State during the passing of the storm. Western regions of the state expected to be worst affected. The IMD has also advised the total suspension of fishing operations in parts of the Arabian Sea through at least June 15.

As of June 12, the IMD has issued yellow thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings across Gujarat and other parts of western India June 12-13, with yellow rainfall warnings also in place for western Gujarat. Orange heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, lightning, and strong wind warnings have been issued for western Gujrarat June 14 and 16, with the warning level raised to red for June 15. Yellow heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, lightning, and strong wind warnings are in place for eastern Gujarat June 14-16 and western Rajasthan June 16.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of extremely heavy rainfall, very strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts of Sindh Province June 13-17. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms are also possible in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Sanghar, and Shaheed Benazirabad districts June 13-16. Strong winds could cause damage to unsecured and vulnerable structures, and storm surges are possible in southeastern parts of Sindh close to where the storm makes landfall. The combination of storm surges and heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in affected areas. The department has advised fishermen not to venture out into the Arabia Sea through June 17 due to rough seas associated with Biparjoy.

Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities on both sides of the border have begun making preparations for the arrival of Biparjoy. In Gujarat State, assessments are being carried out to identify at-risk areas in need of evacuation in coastal parts of the state. Reports indicate at least 1,300 people have already been moved to safer locations as of June 12. Pipavav Port has suspended operations due to adverse weather conditions and flights were disrupted at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (BOM) in Mumbai, Maharashtra State late June 11.

In Sindh province, authorities have ordered the evacuation of around 9,000 people in coastal areas of Badin and Thatta districts. Officials in Karachi have also been assessing at-risk buildings and around 450 identified buildings are to be evacuated as of June 12. Officials have also banned fishing, sailing, and swimming activities in the city's coastal areas. The Karachi Port Trust has issued a red alert and warned that shipping operations will be suspended due to strong winds.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department