Arabian Sea: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy tracking northwestward in the Arabian Sea as of June 13 /update 3

Event

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy is tracking northwestward in the Arabia Sea June 13. As of 11:30 IST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 413 km (257 miles) south of Karachi, Pakistan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken slightly as it curves to track northeastward June 13-14. Biparjoy is then expected to weaken further into a severe cyclonic storm June 15 before making landfall over Kutch District in northwestern Gujarat State, India, close to the border with Sindh Province in Pakistan, during the afternoon June 15. After making landfall, the storm is expected to weaken into a cyclonic storm and then a depression as it continues to track northeastward across northwestern Gujarat, southeastern Sindh, and into southwestern Rajasthan State June 16-17. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of June 13, the India Meteorological Department has issued orange cyclone alerts (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for the Kutch and Saurashtra coasts of Gujarat State. The IMD has warned of increasingly heavy rainfall across parts of western Gujarat State June 13-15, as well as heavy rainfall over northern Gujarat and southern Rajasthan June 16. Increasingly strong winds and rough seas are also expected in coastal areas of Gujarat State June 13-15. Storm surge is possible in the vicinity of where the storm makes landfall. The IMD has warned of possible damage to homes, utility infrastructure, roads, and crops, as well as potential flooding and other associated disruptions in parts of Gujarat State during the passing of the storm. Western regions of the state are expected to be worst affected. The IMD has also advised the total suspension of fishing operations in parts of the Arabian Sea through at least June 15.

As of June 13, the IMD has issued orange heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings in parts of western Gujarat June 13-14 and red warnings June 15. Yellow heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings have been issued for eastern Gujarat June 13-15. Orange warnings are in place across Gujarat June 16 and eastern Gujarat June 17, with yellow warnings in western parts of the state. Orange heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings have also been issued for western Rajasthan June 16-17 and eastern Rajasthan June 17. Yellow strong wind, thunderstorm, and lightning warnings are in place across other parts of northwestern and western India on the periphery of the storm's impacts over the coming days.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of extremely heavy rainfall, very strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts of Sindh Province June 13-17. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms are also possible in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Sanghar, and Shaheed Benazirabad districts June 14-16. Strong winds could cause damage to unsecured and vulnerable structures, and storm surges are possible in southeastern parts of Sindh close to where the storm makes landfall. The combination of storm surges and heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in affected areas. The department has advised fishermen not to venture out into the Arabia Sea through June 17 due to rough seas associated with Biparjoy.

Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities on both sides of the border have begun making preparations for the arrival of Biparjoy. Authorities in Gujarat State have begun evacuating communities within 10 km (6 miles) of the coast on the districts of Kutch, Porbandar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, and Morbi as of June 13. Thousands of people within the at-risk areas are expected to be moved to safer locations June 13 and additional evacuations are expected over the coming days. Around 150 train services have been canceled to and from the affected areas June 13-15 and several ports along Gujarat's coast have suspended operations, including Kanlda and Mundra.

In Sindh province, authorities have evacuated nearly 27,000 people in coastal areas of Badin, Sujawal, and Thatta districts as of June 13. Officials in Karachi have also evacuated dozens of people from at-risk buildings, as well as banning fishing, sailing, and swimming activities in the city's coastal areas. The Karachi Port Trust has issued a red alert and warned that shipping operations may be suspended due to strong winds.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department