Gulf of Mexico: Tropical Storm Arlene tracking south-southeastward north of Cuba as of afternoon June 2 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Arlene is tracking south-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico during the afternoon of June 2. As of 16:00 CDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 510 km (315 miles) north of the western tip of Cuba.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly into a tropical depression as it continues southwards through early June 3, before turning to track southeastward and making a close approach to western Cuba early June 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the afternoon of June 2, authorities have warned of thunderstorms and rainfall across most of Cuba. Officials have also warned of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) of rainfall, with localized higher amounts of up to 15 cm (6 inches), possible across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula through June 3. The heavy rainfall could lead to isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Authorities could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the development of the system in the coming hours and days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at airports across the affected region and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Cuban Meteorological Institute (INSMET) (Spanish)