India, Pakistan: Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy tracking northeastward across Gujarat State early June 16 /update 7

Event

Severe Cyclonic Storm Biparjoy is tracking northeastward across Gujarat State, India, early June 16 after making landfall near Jakhau Port, Kutch District, on the evening of June 15. As of 02:30 IST June 16, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 232 km (144 miles) southeast of Karachi, Pakistan.

Forecast models indicate that the system will weaken into a cyclonic storm as it continues to track northeastward across far western Gujarat State in India and far southeastern Sindh Province in Pakistan through June 16 before weakening further and dissipating over far southwestern Rajasthan State, India, June 17. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and changes may occur over the coming hours and days.

As of early June 16, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red cyclone alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for the Kutch and Saurashtra coasts of Gujarat State. The IMD has warned of light-to-moderate rainfall with isolated heavy-to-extremely heavy rainfall over most of Gujarat and southern Rajasthan June 16 and over northern Gujarat and southeastern Rajasthan June 17. Wind warnings are in place across the coasts of Saurashtra Region and Kutch District June 16. The IMD has warned of likely damage to homes, utility infrastructure, roads, and crops, as well as potential flooding and other associated disruptions in parts of Gujarat State during the passing of the storm. Western regions of the state are likely to be worst affected. The IMD has also called for the total suspension of fishing operations in parts of the Arabian Sea until at least the morning of June 16.

The IMD has issued red heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, lightning, and strong wind warnings across Gujarat and western Rajasthan June 16, as well as yellow warnings in eastern Rajasthan. Red heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and lightning warnings are in place across Rajasthan June 17, as well as yellow heavy rain warnings across eastern Gujarat. Orange warnings persist across Rajasthan June 18, as well as yellow warnings in eastern Rajasthan June 19.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has warned of extremely heavy rainfall, very strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms in Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas, and Umerkot districts of Sindh Province through June 17. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, thunderstorms, and possible dust storms are also forecast in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Sanghar, and Shaheed Benazirabad districts through June 16. Strong winds could cause damage to unsecured and vulnerable structures, and storm surge is possible in southeastern parts of Sindh close to where the storm made landfall. The combination of storm surge and heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in affected areas. The department has advised fishermen not to venture out into the Arabian Sea through June 17 due to rough seas associated with Biparjoy.

Officials will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as the storm progresses.

Authorities in India reported four fatalities after people were caught in rough seas off Mumbai June 12. Five other fatalities have been reported in Gujarat's Kutch and Rajkot districts as of early June 16 amid heavy rainfall and strong winds. At least 22 people were injured when the storm made landfall. Authorities in Gujarat State have evacuated communities within 10 km (6 miles) of the coast in the districts of Kutch, Porbandar, Devbhumi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Junagadh, and Morbi; as of early June 16, more than 94,000 people have been evacuated from at-risk areas. Dozens of train services have been canceled to and from the affected areas, and authorities have reportedly closed the Bhuj Airport (BHJ) terminal in Kutch District until June 16. Several ports along Gujarat's coast have suspended operations, including Kanlda and Mundra. Reports indicate that Biparjoy has knocked out power to more than 900 villages across Gujarat State.

In Sindh Province, authorities have evacuated more than 72,000 people in coastal areas of Badin, Sujawal, and Thatta districts as of early June 16. Officials in Karachi have also evacuated dozens of people from at-risk buildings, as well as banning fishing, sailing, and swimming activities in the city's coastal areas. The Karachi Port Trust has issued a red alert and warned that shipping operations will be suspended once winds off the coast reach 25 knots (45 kph, 30 mph). Several flights have been delayed and canceled at Jinnah International Airport (KHI) in Karachi June 14-16 and further disruptions are likely in the coming days; airport officials have stated that the airport remains open but all flights will be grounded if wind speeds at the airport reach 30 knots (55 kph, 35 mph).

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Additional flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding often increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast adverse weather conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
India Meteorological Department
Pakistan Meteorological Department