India: Political rallies and associated disruptions likely to occur across West Bengal State through at least mid-July /update 1

Event

Political rallies and associated disruptions will likely occur across West Bengal through at least mid-July in the lead-up to, during, and following the July 8 rural (panchayat) elections. Officials will count the votes on July 11. The ruling All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) has been staging statewide rallies since April 25. Although additional organizers did not immediately provide specific locations for gatherings, such demonstrations will probably take place at prominent public spaces, government buildings, press clubs, sports grounds, public squares, and thoroughfares. Participation will vary by locale and sponsoring political group.

Since June 9, several incidents of violence have occurred in various areas, including Barshul, Bhangar, Daspur, Kakdwip, Minakhan, Raninagar, and Shaktinagar. Reports indicate that the related violence has primarily erupted over alleged obstruction of nomination paperwork with several candidates. Officials have imposed public gathering restrictions within 1 km (0.6 miles) of polling centers. Activists may assemble in such areas despite the public gathering ban in effect.

Authorities will maintain a heightened security posture in several parts of the state and will likely deploy near polling centers, government buildings, and police stations. Security personnel will almost certainly monitor any further gatherings and may forcibly disperse overly disruptive crowds. Officials may implement additional enhanced measures, such as roadblocks and/or temporary telecommunication restrictions, as standard precautions or in the event of significant violence.

Clashes between police and activists, as well as between supporters of opposing rival camps, cannot be ruled out. Demonstrators may march along or block roadways, prompting localized transport disruptions. Localized business disruptions are possible. Isolated security incidents, such as minor bombings targeting police stations and government buildings, may occur; on June 13, activists used low-level crude bombs targeting police officers near the Block Development Office in Bhangar.

Context

For several years, local elections in West Bengal have been plagued by low-level clashes and other forms of violence. In 2013, officials deployed security personnel at every polling station in the state. Related disruptions occurred as several activist groups claimed allegations of political malpractices by the ruling party following the vote count. In 2018, widespread violence occurred over similar claims of obstruction of nomination paperwork. The current electoral period does not necessarily indicate an escalation in regional security risks, which remain high.

Advice

Excercise a high degree of caution if operating in or near West Bengal through at least mid-July. Monitor local sources for election rally announcements; avoid all such events as a standard security precaution. Keep away from any political protests that may materialize; depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Plan accordingly for associated localized transport and business disruptions. Heed all official transport and security advisories.