Japan: Tropical Storm Mawar tracking east-northeastward east of Amami Islands late June 2 /update 14

Event

Tropical Storm Mawar is tracking east-northeastward across the Philippine Sea, east of the Amami Islands, late June 2, following landfall over Okinawa Island late June 1. As of 18:00 JST, the storm was approximately 1,109 km (683 miles) southwest of Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture.

Forecast models indicate that the system will maintain its strength as it tracks away from the Amami Islands, Kagoshima Prefecture, far south of mainland Japan's southern coast through early June 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; changes could occur in the coming days.

As of the evening of June 2, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned of flooding and landslides across most of Japan through June 3. Heavy rainfall, with the risk of landslides, is forecast over the Shikoku and Kinki regions from late June 2, over the Tokai region through early June 3, and in the Kanto and Koshin regions late June 2-early June 3. The heaviest rainfall of 25 cm (10 inches) is forecast over the Tokai region through June 3. Around 20 cm (8 inches) of rainfall is also likely in the Kanto and Koshin regions over the same period.

Authorities have issued purple (highest level on a three-tier scale) landslide warnings across southwestern and eastern Shikoku, southern and central Kansai, southern Chubu, and southwestern and eastern Kanto regions and orange landslide and flood warnings across the rest of Shikoku, Kansai, Chubu, and Kanto regions. Yellow advisories are also in effect over most of the rest of Japan. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Authorities in Okinawa Prefecture have issued rescinded most evacuation orders but are maintaining them for the elderly and other vulnerable people in Nakagusuku Village. Reports indicate five injuries in Naha City, one injury in Nishihara Town, and one injury in Miyakojima City.

Evacuation orders are in place for more than 1,275,000 people across central and western Japan, with the worst affected Gifu, Nara, Osaka, Tokushima, and Wakayama prefectures. Additional evacuation orders are likely as the storm approaches and weather conditions deteriorate. Reports indicate that the river through Wakayama City has flooded downstream of Hatori Bridge, and the Toki River is flooded near Kamado District in Mizunami City.

All Nippon Airways (NH) have canceled all flights at Hachijojima Airport (HAC) June 2-3 and some flights at Naha Airport (OKA) June 2. The airline has warned that flights at Tokyo International Airport (HND) and Narita International Airport (NRT) may be disrupted June 2-3 due to strong winds and heavy rainfall. Japan Airlines (JL) has canceled some flights at Tokyo International Airport (HND), and all flights at Kikai (KKX), Amami (ASJ), Tokunoshima (TKN), Okinoerabu (OKE), and Yoron (RNJ) airports June 2, while some flights at other airports across western and southern Japan are delayed or canceled June 2-3. Further flight cancellations are likely as the storm approaches and weather conditions deteriorate. Authorities have suspended all services on the Tokaido Shinkansen due to heavy rain. Authorities temporarily suspended the Sanyo Shinkansen on the inbound line between Shin-Osaka and Hiroshima; services have since resumed. Numerous other local trains are also suspended. Train services are likely to resume once it is safe to do so. The Tokyo Bay Ferry connecting Kurihama in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, with Kanaya in Futtsu City, Chiba Prefecture, is suspended due to expected strong winds and high waves. Authorities have warned that due to heavy rainfall, several expressways will likely close, including the Hokuriku Expressway, Shin-Tomei Expressway, and the Tomei Expressway between Susono and Numazu interchanges.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a severe health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical cyclone conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)