21 Jun 2023 | 09:41 AM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Bret tracking westward in the southern North Atlantic Ocean early June 21 /update 1
TS Bret tracking westward in the southern North Atlantic Ocean early June 21. Forecast to approach the Lesser Antilles late June 22.
Event
Tropical Storm Bret is tracking westward in the southern North Atlantic Ocean early June 21. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1,040 km (645 miles) east of the Windward Islands.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks generally westward across the southern North Atlantic Ocean June 21-22 and approaches the southern Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands late June 22. The system is currently forecast to pass over northern St Lucia late June 22-early June 23 before weakening as it tracks westward across the central Caribbean Sea June 23-24 and transitioning into a tropical depression by early June 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of 05:00 AST June 21, authorities have issued tropical storm watches for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and St. Lucia. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.
Authorities have warned of a risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, strong winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves across parts of the Lesser Antilles June 22-24. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) with localized maximums of around 25 cm (10 inches) are possible across parts of the Lesser Antilles from Guadeloupe south to Grenada, including Barbados, through June 24.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast hurricane or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
