Ukraine: Flood-related disruptions due to dam collapse are likely through June in southern regions /update 1

Event

Disruptions due to the destruction of the Kakhova Dam are likely to persist along and near portions of the Dnipro River through at least late June. The destruction of the dam has flooded numerous communities downstream and forced thousands of people to evacuate. As of June 7, approximately 80 villages are flooded. Southern parts of the city of Kherson have also flooded. At least eight people are confirmed to have been killed although the actual number may be higher and may increase as emergency response operations continue. The Kakhovka Reservoir supplied a large portion of fresh drinking water to the region, including Crimea. Ukrainian officials have indicated that thousands of people are currently without drinking water. There are concerns that water shortages will be further exacerbated as the dam's water level drops.

Humanitarian groups have warned of a longer-term impact on food production with vast areas of agricultural land inundated. Irrigation systems in parts of Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia regions have also been damaged. Aid groups also warn of an increased risk from unexploded ordnance; the flooded area lies along the operational contact zone between Russian and Ukrainian forces and many mines are likely to have been dislodged. The flood waters have also mixed with various toxins, including sewage and chemicals from inundated industrial areas, posing a health risk.

Disruptions to ground travel, power and water supply, and the delivery of basic goods is likely in the impacted region in the coming weeks. Reconstruction and restoration efforts are likely to be impacted and lengthened by the ongoing conflict.

Context

An explosion on the central section of the dam on June 6 resulted in a large section of the dam wall collapsing. It remains unclear who destroyed the dam, with Ukraine and Russia blaming each other for the incident. The dam is under the control of Russian forces as of June 8.

In military terms, there would be no benefit to Ukraine in the dam’s destruction and consequent flooding, only disadvantages. The effect of the floodwater will limit Kyiv’s options in planning the expected offensive, as the inundated areas around the lower Dnipro River will act as a barrier to any large-scale troop movements. The humanitarian operation, including the evacuation of Kherson Region residents, will likely distract Ukrainian troops and logistic hubs from preparing for any offensive. For Russian forces, the dam’s destruction will reduce the requirement for defensive forces in the Kherson region, as the damage will prevent or slow any Ukrainian advance.

The dam is part of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Operators at the plant stated that the station has been completely destroyed and cannot be restored. This will likely have a major impact on power supply across the region and lead to outages in surrounding areas. The reservoir also provides cooling water to the nuclear power station in Zaporizhzhia. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated that there is no immediate nuclear safety risk at the power station due to the dam breach and there are alternative water supplies that can be used if the reservoir falls below the required 12.7 meters to pump water upstream to the plant, including a large cooling pond near the site. IAEA activity and assessments at the plant are ongoing.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cell phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.