Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of June 15 /update 225

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of June 15. Ground combat remains concentrated along frontlines in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Elsewhere, artillery bombardments and air strikes occur regularly along a wider area, including Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Chernihiv regions. Intensified Russian airstrikes have targeted Kyiv through May and early June, and will likely continue in coming days.

As of June 15, the Ukrainian military continues to adopt a more offensive posture. Reports indicate Ukrainian counter-offensive operations are ongoing in at least three sectors of the line of contact: in western Zaporizhzhia, around Bakhmut, and in the western Donetsk region near the border with Zaporizhia region. In each area, territorial gains are advancing slowly. Attacks on Russian logistic hubs and command and control centers have increased in recent days.

Russian missile and drone attacks against Kyiv have continued on most days. Ukrainian air defenses are increasingly capable of neutralizing most Russian missiles and loitering munitions targeting the city. However, falling debris continues to cause occasional civilian deaths and injuries, fires, and disruptions. Further long-range airstrikes and bombardments targeting urban centers are probable in the coming days.

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region on June 6 has flooded numerous communities downstream and forced thousands of people to evacuate. As of June 15, some flood waters have started to recede, however dozens of villages remain flooded. At least ten people are confirmed to have been killed. Drinking water supplies have been contaminated throughout the region. The destruction of the dam will likely have a long-term environmental impact.

There have been no further reports of military operations in Russia's Belgorod Oblast of Russia in recent days. Russian separatist groups Free Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps had conducted limited operations in the region in late May and early June. Local authorities will likely remain on heightened alert in the adjacent Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Kharkiv.

Combat continues to remain focused in the Donetsk Region. Around Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces claim to have regained around 16 square km of territory and are now approaching the towns of Berkhivka and Yahidne. Russian forces in the area continue to defend their lines. Reports indicate that Wagner forces have mostly left the area and have been replaced by Russian regular forces. Bakhmut will likely remain one of the points of main effort for Ukrainian forces in the short term. Elsewhere in Donetsk, Ukrainian forces continue to push south of Velyka Novosilka and have entered the village of Makarivka.

Significant fighting continues in the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian forces have reported minor advances.

Artillery activity continues daily in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Russian forces consistently target the Dvorichna and Kupyansk areas, although no major ground assault has been reported in recent days. Limited ground assaults, likely reconnaissance-in-force, continue throughout most of the line of contact.

Context

As of mid-June, Ukrainian forces have embarked on counter-offensive operations. This is likely to be across a broad front and with heightened pressure in a limited number of areas. Advances will likely continue to be slow. It is likely that Ukraine has a significant reserve of land forces, including western-supplied armored vehicles and troops trained in NATO countries, that will be deployed at some future point. Russian forces are likely to capitalize on their defensive positions to slow any advances.

Ukrainian forces are likely to launch further offensive operations elsewhere along the southern and eastern fronts in attempts to probe Russian defensive positions before any major combined arms operation commences. Ukraine will also continue to employ targeted drone strikes and covert activity to disrupt Russian logistics and command and control.

Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian cities will likely continue, although Ukrainian air defenses continue to neutralize a high proportion of inbound threat missiles and drones. The attacks on Kyiv no longer appear aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes elsewhere in the country, including Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Reports indicate that Russia continues to experience shortages of advanced precision munitions, so massed missile strikes remain sporadic.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.