Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of June 22 /update 226

Event

Military operations are ongoing in Ukraine's southern and eastern regions as of June 22. Most ground combat operations concentrate on the line of contact in the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Elsewhere, Ukrainian and Russian artillery bombardments continue to occur regularly, targeting areas on either side of the international border in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Russian airstrikes on the Kyiv Region, which intensified through May and early June, have significantly decreased.

As of June 22, the Ukrainian military maintains a mostly offensive posture. Reports indicate Ukrainian counter-offensive operations are ongoing in at least three sectors of the line of contact: in western Zaporizhzhia, around Bakhmut in the Donetsk Region, and in the western Donetsk Region near the border with Zaporizhia Region. In each area, territorial gains remain unclear, and advances are slow-paced. Ukrainian artillery continues to target Russian logistic hubs and command and control centers, as Ukraine reportedly continues to deploy long-range weapons to increase deep strikes in Russian-held territory, further hampering Russian capabilities.

In the southern Luhansk Region, Ukrainian forces launched limited counterattacks in the Bilohorivka area, where Russian forces previously conducted several offensive operations through winter. Heavy combat is ongoing in the Bakhmut area, with both Ukrainian and Russian forces reporting offensive activity to the northeast and south of the city. In the western Donetsk Region, Ukrainian forces have launched assaults in western Makiivka and reportedly continue to push south of Velyka Novosilka in a likely effort to take complete control of Makarivka. In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian and Russian forces are likely engaged in positional battles in the settlement of Pyatykhatky. Ukrainian forces have reported minor advances elsewhere in Zaporizhzhia Region.

Russian missile and drone attacks against Kyiv have significantly decreased over the past week. Air raid alarms sound regularly on most days; however, fewer missiles and loitering munition have targeted the capital. The decrease in aerial attacks is likely due to depleting Russian reserves; Russian forces are likely stockpiling weapons to intensify the air campaign in the medium term as Ukrainian forces continue counter-offensive operations in the east and south. Occasional long-range airstrikes will likely continue to find some success for Russia; as of June 20, loitering munitions successfully targeted Lviv Region, and on June 22, Odesa. On both occasions, no civilian casualties were reported.

Ukrainian forces reportedly deployed British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles to target the Chonhar bridge, which connects Crimea to southern Ukraine, in a likely attempt to impede the passage of supplies and reinforcements from Crimea to Melitopol. The bridge provides the main rail and road connections between Crimea and Melitopol; authorities report the repairs will likely take several days.

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region on June 6 continues to cause disruptions in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Authorities in Odesa report the increased presence of UXO along the coastline, likely dragged there by the Kakhovka floodwaters; numerous explosions have been reported in the waters of the Odesa Region.

Artillery activity continues daily in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces consistently target the Dvorichna and Kupyansk areas, although no major ground assault has been reported in recent days. Limited ground assaults, likely reconnaissance-in-force, continue throughout most of the line of contact.

Context

As of mid-June, Ukrainian forces have embarked on counter-offensive operations. This is likely to be across a broad front and with heightened pressure in a limited number of areas. Advances will likely continue to be slow. It is likely that Ukraine has a significant reserve of land forces, including western-supplied armored vehicles and troops trained in NATO countries, that will be deployed at some future point. Russian forces are likely to capitalize on their defensive positions to slow any advances.

Ukrainian forces are likely to launch further offensive operations elsewhere along the southern and eastern fronts in attempts to probe Russian defensive positions before any major combined arms operation commences. Ukraine will also continue to employ targeted drone strikes and covert activity to disrupt Russian logistics and command and control.

Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian cities will likely continue, although Ukrainian air defenses continue to neutralize a high proportion of inbound threat missiles and drones. The attacks on Kyiv no longer appear aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes elsewhere in the country, including Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Reports indicate that Russia continues to experience shortages of advanced precision munitions, so massed missile strikes remain sporadic.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification in your chosen city or region of Ukraine from the Civil Defense System. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.