Ukraine: Military operations continue in southern and eastern regions as of June 29 /update 227

Event

Ukrainian forces are maintaining an offensive posture in most of the country’s southern and eastern regions as of June 29. The main military operations are concentrated along the line of contact in three regions, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. On the remaining areas of the frontline, Ukrainian and Russian artillery activity occurs regularly, with occasional long-range strikes on both sides; Russian forces continue to target Ukraine’s populated areas, while Kyiv’s artillery and missiles concentrate on Russian command and control structures and logistical nodes. Shelling is reported on either side of the international border in the Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions. Russian aerial activity targeting Kyiv has been reduced through June, following elevated strikes throughout May.

Ukrainian forces launch limited attacks through June 22-29 on four sectors along the line of contact. The heaviest combat has been consistently reported south of Kreminna in the Luhansk region, in the settlements north and south of Bakhmut, as well as in western Donetsk region, and southern Zaporizhzhia region. Reports indicate Ukrainian tactical advances in Russian-held territory. Ukrainian attacks are characterized by slow-paced advances through heavily mined areas defended by Russian forces. Information consistent with previous reports confirms increasing difficulties for Russian logistics to deliver provisions, weaponry, and ammunition to defending troops. Ukraine’s deep strike campaign targeting Russian logistical nodes likely continues to hamper Russia’s supply chain.

In the southern Luhansk Region, Ukrainian and Russian forces have clashed in the Bilohorivka area, although no territorial changes have been confirmed in recent days. In the Donetsk Region, Kyiv’s troops recaptured portions of territory on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut. Heavy combat and limited Ukrainian gains are also reported north of Avdiivka. The main Ukrainian effort in Donetsk Region, as of June 29, appears to be south of Velyka Novosilka, where Ukrainian troops advanced through Makarivka and maintain an offensive stance. In Zaporizhzhia Region, Ukrainian and Russian forces likely remain engaged in positional battles around the settlement of Pyatykhatky and Orikhiv. Russian authorities report increased Ukrainian activity in Kherson Region and claim the possibility of a Ukrainian attack from the area of the Antonovski bridge. Russian defending forces remain deployed in the Oleshky area.

Russian missile and drone attacks against Kyiv have significantly decreased over the past week. Air raid alarms sound regularly on most days; however, fewer missiles and loitering munition have targeted the capital. The decrease in aerial attacks is likely due to depleting Russian reserves; Russian forces are likely stockpiling weapons to intensify the air campaign in the medium term as Ukrainian forces continue counter-offensive operations in the east and south. Occasional long-range airstrikes will likely continue to find some success for Russia.

The destruction of the Kakhovka Dam in the Kherson region on June 6 continues to cause disruptions in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Authorities in Odesa report the increased presence of UXO along the coastline, likely dragged there by the Kakhovka floodwaters; numerous explosions have been reported in the waters of the Odesa Region.

Artillery activity continues daily in the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces consistently target the Dvorichna and Kupyansk areas, although no major ground assault has been reported in recent days. Limited ground assaults, likely reconnaissance-in-force, continue throughout most of the line of contact.

Context

As of the end of June, Ukrainian forces maintain pressure through counteroffensive shaping operations with the likely aim of overburdening Russian defensive positions and forcing a breakthrough. Similar attacks are likely to continue with heightened pressure in a limited number of areas. Advances will likely continue to be slow. It is likely that Ukraine has a significant reserve of land forces, including western-supplied armored vehicles and troops trained in NATO countries, that will be deployed at some future point. Russian forces are likely to capitalize on their defensive positions to slow any advances.

Following the June 23-24 Wagner Group mutiny and subsequent agreement between the Kremlin and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner, Russian capabilities in some of the contested areas could diminish. Wagner forces collectively gained considerable experience and are deemed effective on the battlefield. Their integration of Wagner troops into the Russian regular forces under the command of the Russian Ministry of Defense could ultimately result in an overall loss of effectiveness, and lead to disagreements or altercations on the frontline between fighting units, curbing their combat capabilities.

The political side effects of Wagner’s mutiny are likely to play out over the medium to long term in Moscow. On June 29, Russian authorities arrested General and Commander of the Aerospace Forces Sergey Surovkin, likely over alleged links with Wagner in relation to the mutiny. The arrest of a senior officer showcases Moscow’s desire to hold potential accomplices to account and ensure the loyalty of senior military figures to Putin’s regime. Further arrests of high-placed political and military personnel in the coming weeks are possible. In the short term, such arrests are unlikely to affect the battlefield directly; however, medium- and long-term repercussions for the fighting forces are possible in relation to logistics, command and control, and general management.

Ukrainian forces are likely to launch further offensive operations elsewhere along the southern and eastern fronts in attempts to probe Russian defensive positions before any major combined arms operation commences. Ukraine will also continue to employ targeted drone strikes and covert activity to disrupt Russian logistics and command and control.

Russian airstrikes against Ukrainian cities will likely continue, although Ukrainian air defenses continue to neutralize a high proportion of inbound threat missiles and drones. The attacks on Kyiv no longer appear aimed at disrupting critical infrastructure but rather at depleting Ukrainian air defense munitions and revealing the locations of air defense systems. Strikes elsewhere in the country, including Odesa and Kryvyi Rih, are increasingly targeting industrial areas. Reports indicate that Russia continues to experience shortages of advanced precision munitions, so mass missile strikes remain sporadic.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Download the AirAlert mobile application to receive an air alert notification from the Civil Defense System in your chosen city or region of Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of booby traps.