Black Sea: Navigation warnings issued by Russia and Ukraine July 20 following end of grain initiative

Event

Russian and Ukrainian authorities have issued separate navigational warnings to shipping in the northern Black Sea as of July 20. The warnings were issued in the immediate aftermath of the July 17 collapse of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a UN-backed accord brokered between Russia, Turkiye, and Ukraine that provided for the safe passage of grain and other foodstuffs from the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Pivdennyi. The deal ended after Russia refused to extend it, citing Western sanctions harming its ability to export its own foodstuffs and fertilizer. Nevertheless, negotiations between Russia and Turkiye will probably take place in the coming weeks, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan having expressed optimism that a diplomatic solution would be found.

Immediately following the end of the agreement, Russian authorities stated that they would be unable to guarantee the security of vessels in the northwestern Black Sea. A further Russian warning for the region was issued on July 19, adding that all vessels headed to Ukrainian ports would be considered "potential carriers of military cargo" and the flag states of such vessels would be considered actively participating in the conflict. Strikes against port facilities in Odesa and Mykolaiv were reported early July 18, with some 60,000 tons of grain destroyed in Odesa. Russia also reportedly deployed additional naval mines on the approaches to Ukrainian ports July 19, closing previously cleared corridors. The strikes and deployment of mines were likely carried out in order to frustrate and discourage attempts to continue shipments outside of the grain initiative.

Ukrainian authorities responded by declaring that all shipping to and from ports in Russia and occupied Ukraine would equally be considered as potentially carrying military equipment from July 20, while the northeastern Black Sea and Kerch Strait are to be considered closed military areas.

International maritime law states that vessels suspected of carrying military equipment may be boarded and searched, and civilian vessels belonging to the opposing side may be seized. Attacks against civilian shipping are illegal in most cases.

Shipments to and from Ukrainian ports will probably cease entirely in the short-to-medium term, with insurance providers unlikely to provide coverage for vessels operating in the northwestern Black Sea due to renewed Russian threats. The Russian navy will very likely intercept any unescorted vessels attempting to reach Ukrainian ports; attacks on such vessels cannot be ruled out. Attacks against shipping to and from Russian ports are less likely, although some disruption is probable as insurers and shipping companies consider their options in light of recent developments. Russian strikes against Ukrainian port facilities will almost certainly continue indefinitely.

Advice

Exercise caution and maintain an increased level of vigilance if transiting through the Black Sea in the coming weeks. Reconfirm shipping and freight routes with maritime authorities and keep abreast of regional developments affecting maritime operations.