Pakistan: Demonstrations denouncing July 30 explosion in Bajaur likely across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province through at least early August /update 2

Event

Protests denouncing the July 30 explosion in Bajaur are likely to occur across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province through at least early August. On July 30, a suicide bombing left at least 45 people killed and 200 others wounded amid a Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam political gathering in the Khar area. Potential gathering sites include police stations, as well as prominent government buildings, press clubs, sports grounds, public squares, and thoroughfares. Participation will likely vary by locale, but previous well-attended demonstrations have attracted thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture in the province over the coming days following the July 30 explosion. Isolated clashes between police and activists are possible. Activists typically march along and/or block roadways, which may prompt localized transport disruptions. Associated localized business disruptions are possible. Further explosions cannot be ruled out.

Context

There is a high threat of terrorism across Pakistan. Officials suspect the so-called Islamic State was responsible for the July 30 incident. Other groups could have also carried out the July 30 suicide bombing. In late November 2022, leaders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) called off a ceasefire with Pakistani security forces. TTP leaders have since encouraged their members to carry out attacks across the country in retaliation for security operations in several areas of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province.

A spike in militant attacks remains possible over the coming months; militants typically target Pakistani security forces in small-scale bombings, assassinations, and kidnappings in its stronghold areas. Other potential target sites include places of worship, crowded markets, transport hubs, and government and diplomatic buildings. Large attacks involving mass casualties are unlikely in major cities, but cannot be ruled out. Previous attacks involving civilian casualties have prompted demonstrations, such as roadblocks, shutdown strikes, and sit-ins.

Advice

Exercise a high degree of caution if operating in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. Plan accordingly for consequent localized transport and business disruptions. Carry proper identification documents in the impacted areas; heed all official transport and security advisories.