PT: Civil unrest and heightened security likely in parts of the Palestinian Territories after raids in Jenin, July 3 /update 1

Event

Increased security, heightened tensions, and further violence are likely in the West Bank in the Palestinian Territories (PT) after the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a military operation in a refugee camp in Jenin early July 3. At least eight Palestinians have been killed and 50 wounded during the opeation; the casualty figure will likely increase over the coming hours and days. The military operation was launched in an effort to target militant groups, including the Jenin Brigades, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

In response to the military operation, the Palestinian militant group, Lion's Den, has called for protests throughout the West Bank beginning at 19:00 on July 3. Protests will likely materialize in Nablus, Ramallah, East Jerusalem, and elsewhere. Rallies in opposition to Israel's military operation have already occurred in Gaza on July 3. Further demonstrations are almost certain across the PT in the coming days; they will probably focus on traditionally popular protest sites across the West Bank and Gaza, such as prominent public squares, city centers, and government buildings.

Israeli forces will probably launch further security raids in the West Bank over the coming days. Further violence, including clashes between Israeli forces and Palestinians, is likely in Jenin and other major cities in the PT. Hamas and PIJ tend to launch rocket attacks against southern Israel following high-profile military raids in the West Bank; a similar action by the Gaza-based militants cannot be ruled out over the coming days. Israeli military forces will almost certainly respond to any mortar or rocket attacks. Israeli forces will likely disperse disruptive demonstrations.

Context

The IDF launched a combined air and ground military operation against a Palestinian refugee camp in Jenin early July 3. The Israeli government launched the operation to target the militant group Jenin Brigades' joint operational command center; however, a spokesman for the Palestinian Authority has referred to it as a war crime. The assault is the largest Israeli military operation in the West Bank in over two decades. It represents the latest in a series of flare-ups in a year of spiraling violence between Israel and the PT. Rising tensions have raised fears that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is on the brink of a broader escalation, with the odds of a third intifada higher than they have been in years.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in the West Bank, especially in Jenin. Avoid all demonstrations and areas where security personnel appear to be concentrating. If violence breaks out, immediately depart the area and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints without authorities' permission. Adhere to all instructions issued by local officials and your home government.