Russia: Adverse weather forecast in southwestern regions through at least July 12

Event

Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and a high risk of forest fires, is forecast across the Republic of Adygea and Krasnodar Kray, including the municipality of Sochi, through at least July 12. As of July 10, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange other hazard warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for rain, thunderstorms, strong winds, hail, and possible flooding across the affected area, as well as orange coastal warnings for Sochi. Orange forest fire and yellow heavy rain and thunderstorm warnings are also in place across Krasnodar Kray and the Adygea Republic. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Disruptions due to flooding following recent heavy rainfall are ongoing in Sochi and the surrounding area as of July 10. Authorities have declared a state of emergency in the village of Mirny near Sochi after nearly 150 homes were flooded; evacuations are ongoing in the area. Transport disruptions are also ongoing in the region. Russian railways have suspended trains through the area to and from Abkhazia due to flooded tracks. Ferry services connecting Krasnodar Kray with Crimea have also been suspended, and several flights from Sochi International Airport (AER) were canceled on July 10. Several roads in the affected region have been made impassable due to floodwaters. Further disruptions are likely over the coming days due to the adverse weather forecast.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity throughout the affected area. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash, and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the Black Sea and the Black and Azov Sea coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas.

Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring