South China Sea: Tropical Storm Talim tracking northwestward in the eastern South China Sea late July 15 /update 1

Event

Tropical Storm Talim is tracking northwestward in the eastern South China Sea late July 15. As of 20:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 554 km (344 miles) southeast of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a typhoon as it continues to track northwestward across the northern South China Sea July 16-17, before making landfall over the northern Leizhou Peninsula in far southwestern Guangdong Province, China, early July 18. The system is expected to weaken back to tropical storm strength as it skirts along the south coast of Guangxi Province and into far northern Vietnam on July 18, before weakening into a tropical depression and dissipating near the border between northern Vietnam and Yunnan Province on July 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 15, the China Meteorological Administration has issued a blue typhoon warning (the lowest level on a four-tier scale), warning of strong winds in southern coastal waters and moderate-heavy rainfall across parts of southern China July 15-16. The heaviest rainfall is likely over the Leizhou Peninsula, where totals of 5-8 cm (2-3 inches) are possible. Vietnam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has not issued any warnings for land areas as of July 15; however, the center has warned of strong winds and large waves in northeastern seas and along the northeast coast.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)