South China Sea: Typhoon Doksuri tracking north-northwestward off southern Taiwan as of early July 27 /update 7

Event

Typhoon Doksuri is tracking north-northwestward in the South China Sea off southern Taiwan early July 27. As of 08:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 590 km (366 miles) east-southeast of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will maintain typhoon strength as it tracks north-northwestward across the South China Sea July 27-28. The system will pass southwest of Taiwan July 27 before making landfall over southern Fujian Province in mainland China the morning of July 28. After making landfall, Doksuri will weaken into a tropical depression as it continues north-northwestward across Fujian and Jiangxi provinces through July 28, before dissipating over eastern Hubei Province early July 29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for most of the island, except the northern portion, and coastal waters. Purple torrential rain warnings (the highest level on a four-tier scale) are in effect for Hualien and the mountainous areas of Taitung and Pingtung counties, as well as red torrential rain warnings for the rest of Taitung and the mountainous areas of Yilan County. Orange extreme heavy rain warnings are in effect for the mountainous areas of Kaohsiung, New Taipei, and Taichung cities, as well as Nantou County. Yellow heavy rain warnings are in place for the rest of the affected area. Officials have also issued onshore strong wind advisories across northern, southern, and all island coastal areas.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning. Rainfall totals of up to 25-40 cm (10-16 inches) are likely in southeastern Fujian July 27-28, as well as strong winds in the South China Sea. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Disruptions are ongoing across parts of the Philippines as of July 27, following the passing of Doksuri. Authorities have reported casualties and evacuated tens of thousands of people across the affected regions, including more than 12,000 people in northern Cagayan Province and more than 31,000 people across Western Visayas Region. Power outages are affecting parts of western Luzon. Air, ground, and sea travel disruptions continue in the affected regions July 27.

In Taiwan, authorities announced the suspension of all 160 ferries on 17 domestic and cross-Taiwan Strait ferries scheduled for July 27. Officials have grounded all 246 domestic flights and canceled a handful of international flights July 27, as well as shut down railway services between eastern and southern Taiwan. Authorities have also imposed closures on sections of provincial highways 7, 8, 20, and 23 through July 28 or until weather conditions stabilize. Officials have curtailed annual military drills due to the storm. Businesses and schools in southern Taiwan, as well as some national parks, are closed and several outdoor sporting and other recreational events are suspended. Authorities have preemptively evacuated more than 4,000 people in the mountainous areas of eastern and southern Taiwan.

In China, authorities have issued an advisory suspending all indoor and outdoor activities in the affected areas and construction works in the coastal areas. Officials have suspended or adjusted train services on routes along the coast and other high-risk areas in Guangdong Province until July 30. Authorities have called on fishing boats in Fujian Province coastal areas to return to port and the evacuation of residents in potential risk areas before July 26; 2,784 ships are in ports along the coast of the province as of July 27. Schools in the province are also closed July 26-29.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau