South China Sea: Typhoon Doksuri tracking north-northwestward off western Taiwan as of early July 28 /update 9

Event

Typhoon Doksuri is tracking north-northwestward in the South China Sea off western Taiwan early July 28. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 307 km (191 miles) west-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make landfall over southern Fujian Province in mainland China over the coming hours. After making landfall, Doksuri is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it continues north-northwestward across Fujian and Jiangxi provinces before weakening further to a tropical depression over Anhui Province through July 29. The system will likely dissipate over far eastern Henan Province early July 30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued typhoon warnings over Changhua, Chiayi, Kinmen, Miaoli, Nantou, Penghu, and Yunlin counties and Chiayi, Taichung, and Tainan cities. Red torrential rain warnings (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) are in effect for eastern Pingtung County and southern and eastern Kaohsiung City, as well as orange extremely heavy rain warnings for Hualien, Nantou, Penghu, and Taitung counties and Taichung City. Yellow heavy rain warnings are in place for the rest of southern and eastern Taiwan. Officials have also issued onshore strong wind advisories across northern, southern, and western coastal areas.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a red (the highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely across parts of southern Anhui, Fujian, southern Jiangsu, eastern Jiangxi, and Zhejiang provinces. The heaviest rainfall of 25-28 cm (10-11 inches) is forecast in eastern Fujian and northern and eastern Zhejiang provinces. Authorities also issued orange rainstorm warnings and blue severe thunderstorm warnings for parts of eastern China as well as orange and yellow landslide warnings across western Chongqing, central and northeastern Fujian, western Guizhou, and eastern Gansu, southeastern Liaoning, central Shaanxi, eastern Sichuan, northeastern Yunnan, southeastern Zhejiang provinces. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

In Taiwan, authorities have confirmed one fatality near Wenlan Village in Hualien County’s Sioulin Township late July 26 due to floodwaters. Two people remain trapped in a cave near the Lisong Hot Spring in Taitung County’s Haiduan Township. Authorities announced the suspension of all 160 ferries on 17 domestic and cross-Taiwan Strait ferries July 27. Officials canceled hundreds of domestic and international flights July 26-28 and shut down railway services between eastern and southern Taiwan. Authorities have also imposed closures on sections of provincial highways 7, 8, 20, and 23 through July 28 or until weather conditions stabilize. Officials have curtailed annual military drills due to the storm. Businesses and schools in southern Taiwan, as well as some national parks, are closed, and several outdoor sporting and other recreational events are suspended. Authorities preemptively evacuated more than 5,700 people in the mountainous areas of eastern and southern Taiwan. More than 186,000 households experienced intermittent power outages as of late July 27.

In mainland China, authorities have issued an advisory suspending all indoor and outdoor activities in the affected areas and construction works in the coastal areas. Officials have suspended or adjusted train services on routes along the coast and other high-risk areas in Guangdong Province until July 30. Authorities have called on fishing boats in Fujian Province coastal areas to return to port and the evacuation of residents in potential risk areas as of July 26. Schools in the province are also closed July 26-29.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau