South China Sea: Typhoon Talim tracking northwestward toward southwestern Guangdong Province as of July 17 /update 3

Event

Typhoon Talim is tracking northwestward in the northern South China Sea July 17. As of 14:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 265 km (165 miles) southwest of Hong Kong, China.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall over southwestern Guangdong Province, China, late July 17. The system is then forecast to weaken to tropical-storm strength as it tracks northwestward across southern Guangxi Province and into far northern Vietnam July 18. The storm is expected to weaken further into a tropical depression and subsequently dissipate near the border between northern Laos and southern Yunnan Province July 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 17, the China Meteorological Administration had issued an orange typhoon warning (the second highest level on a four-tier scale), warning of strong winds in southern coastal waters and coastal areas of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan Island, as well as heavy rainfall across parts of southern China July 17-18. The heaviest rainfall is likely in southwestern Guangdong, southeastern Guangxi, and much of Hainan Island, where rainfall totals of 25-30 cm (10-12 inches) are possible.

Vietnam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting has issued an emergency storm warning regarding Talim. Very strong winds and large waves are expected in northeastern coastal waters July 17-18. Strong winds are also expected in coastal areas between Quang Ninh and Thai Binh provinces, as well as some interior provinces in northeastern Vietnam, including Lang Son, Bac Giang, and Bac Ninh. Storm surge is possible in coastal areas of Quang Ninh Province and Hai Phong City. Heavy rainfall is likely over northern and northeastern regions late July 17-19. Rainfall totals of around 20-30 cm (8-12 inches) are expected across parts of the affected region, with localized higher totals of more than 40 cm (16 inches) possible. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches) are also possible in parts of northwestern, north-central, and the Red River Delta regions over the coming days.

Authorities in Guangdong Province have evacuated at least 1,000 people in Yunfu City ahead of the storm's approach. Zhuhai Jinwan Airport (ZUH) in Guangdong Province canceled around 80 flights July 17 and all flights were canceled at Haikou Meilan International Airport (HAK) and Qionghai Bo'ao Airport (BAR) in Hainan due to the storm. More than 1,000 passengers have also been affected by cancelations and delays at Hong Kong International Airport (HKG). Train services on Hainan Island have been suspended and schools, businesses, and many recreational facilities have been closed as residents are advised to stay home during the passage of the storm. Maritime authorities in some southern Chinese provinces, including Hainan, have ordered vessels to return to port ahead of the storm. Ferry services in the Qiongzhou Strait were also suspended from July 16. The Hong Kong stock exchange suspended trading July 17 due to the storm and all court hearings in the city have been adjourned.

Authorities in Vietnam have stated they were preparing to evacuate around 30,000 people from at-risk areas of Quang Ninh and Thai Binh provinces and Hai Phong City July 17. Evacuations are also anticipated in Nam Dinh and Ninh Binh provinces. Vessels have been ordered to return to shore in northeastern coastal areas. Disruptions to flights are also likely at airports in the affected regions, including Noi Bai International Airport (HAN) in Hanoi.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical-storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)