South China Sea: Typhoon Talim tracking west-northwestward toward Leizhou Peninsula as of early July 17 /update 2

Event

Typhoon Talim is tracking west-northwestward in the northern South China Sea early July 17. As of 02:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 289 km (180 miles) south of Hong Kong.

Forecast models indicate that the system will slightly strengthen as it continues to track west-northwestward across the northern South China Sea July 17 before making landfall over China's Leizhou Peninsula in far southwestern Guangdong Province very early July 18. The system is then forecast to weaken to tropical-storm strength as it skirts along the southern coast of Guangxi Province and into far northern Vietnam July 18. The storm is subsequently likely to transit northern Vietnam July 19 and dissipate as a significant tropical cyclone near the border between northern Laos and southern Yunnan Province, China, by early July 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late July 16, the China Meteorological Administration had issued an orange typhoon warning (the second highest level on a four-tier scale), warning of strong winds in southern coastal waters and coastal areas of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan Island, as well as heavy rainfall across parts of southern China July 16-17. The heaviest rainfall is likely in far southern coastal areas and over Hainan Island, where rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are possible. Vietnam's National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting had not issued any warnings for land areas as of July 16; however, the center has warned of strong winds and large waves in northeastern seas and along the northeastern coast.

Maritime authorities in some southern Chinese provinces, including Hainan, have ordered vessels to return to port ahead of the storm. Ferry services in the Qiongzhou Strait were also suspended from July 16.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical-storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF)